Superpower's opening move well-calculated

By ALAN PERROTT and AGENCIES

The air assault on Afghanistan was the carefully calculated opening round of a long-term mission to destroy the Taleban and the al Qaeda terrorist network.

Analysts say it showed a high degree of shrewdness as the United States walks a public relations tightrope with its Muslim allies.

Pinpoint attacks were carefully aimed at Taleban military and command units and at al Qaeda bases.

This took the fight to the leadership, minimising civilian casualties.

There will be two aims as the attacks progress.

The balance of power will be radically tilted toward the Northern Alliance rebels, and the United States will win an unchallengeable dominance of the sky.

The only apparent limit to these strikes is the number of worthwhile targets as the most sophisticated arsenal in the world takes on one of its most backward nations.

But the easiest part is launching attacks. The hardest is finding Osama bin Laden.

Defence analyst David Dickens from the Centre of Strategic Studies expects the raids to give the Northern Alliance a red carpet ride to Kabul.

"The balance of power is being altered significantly, the rebel forces are on the front foot and could quickly gain control of about two thirds of the country. This means Osama will lose most of the places where he has been training his people and the Taleban could lose many of the allies that are fighting with them."

He suspects harassment of al Qaeda bases will also affect the planning of terrorist reprisals.

Michael O'Connor, an analyst with the Australian Defence Association, believes the opening strategy is sound and is the West's best chance of avoiding an unwinnable ground war.

He says serious ground fighting should be left to the opposition forces in the Afghan civil war, and expects a rapid increase in supplies, weapons and training for the Northern Alliance units.

The Taleban will soon face a difficult decision. Do they hide from the reinforced Alliance army and allow them to advance or do they oppose them and make themselves vulnerable to air strikes?

Another prong to the US strategy is the mainly symbolic airdrop of humanitarian supplies.

This proclaims that the war is with bin Laden and his supporters, not the Afghan people.

Bin Laden has issued a videotape showing him shaking his fist in the face of America in a well-timed attempt to spread the conflict into neighbouring countries.

Dr Ron Smith, a terrorist expert at Waikato University, is worried the Taleban could take this public relations war to extremes, manipulating concern over civilian casualties.

"This is a cynical hard-nosed business and they could take civilians into tunnels or bunkers likely to be targeted, specifically so they can show some genuine civilian casualties."