Study shows Donald Trump has hidden supporters

Quinnipiac poll released found that 50% of American voters say they would be embarrassed to have Trump as president. Photo / Getty Images

Polls may be underestimating Donald Trump's support, according to intriguing new research that says the Republican front-runner benefits from a "social desirability bias" - some people who plan to vote for him are too embarrassed to admit it.

The study, published by Morning Consult, found that Trump fares about six percentage points better among likely Republican voters in online polls than when a pollster is speaking by phone to a live human being.

Moreover, the report indicated, the higher an individual's educational attainment, the greater the likelihood that the respondent wouldn't admit on the telephone to supporting Trump.

Under this theory, private online polls are more indicative of what likely voters will do in the privacy of the voting booth.

A new Quinnipiac poll released yesterday, featuring live phone interviews, found that 50 per cent of American voters say they would be embarrassed to have Trump as president.

The Morning Consult study raises a question: How many would say that if they weren't talking to a live person?

There are reasons to be sceptical that Trump's support is being underestimated.

First, online surveys are generally viewed by many pollsters as less reliable. Second, polls suggest Trump's supporters are historically less likely to vote, leaving considerable uncertainty as to whether they'll show up to caucus or vote in a primary.

The best predictor of future voting, many pollsters say, is past voting.

Indeed, many believe Trump's support is being overestimated - that many of his supporters will jump ship, or stay home.

- Bloomberg