Speculation swirls on Saddam's fate after bombing

3.00pm

BAGHDAD - A US air strike on a building in a wealthy district of the Iraqi capital Baghdad has put world financial markets on edge. Is Saddam Hussein, target of the US-led invasion, alive or dead?

The crew on board the B-1 bomber that launched the strike was told: "This is the big one." Twelve minutes later it dropped four satellite-guided bombs on a house in the Mansur suburb of Baghdad, which Iraqi television showed Saddam touring on Friday.

Two buildings were flattened in Mansur on Monday and four others were damaged. Witnesses said the strike killed nine Iraqis and wounded four. Others were buried under the rubble.

President Bush, visiting Northern Ireland, said he did not know if Saddam had survived the attack or not. "The only thing I know is he is losing power," he said.

Iraqi Information Minister Saeed al-Sahaf told reporters in Baghdad on Tuesday US forces advancing through the centre of the capital would be defeated. He was not asked about Saddam's whereabouts, but asserted Iraq would never surrender.

The US military said on Tuesday that it destroyed a building where Saddam might have been meeting aides but that it could be impossible to find out who had been inside. A British military spokesman was more confident Saddam was dead.

"We're fairly certain and we have good source reports saying he has been killed. But we still don't have substantiation and I think until we get that we can't definitely say so," Al Lockwood, the main British spokesman, told Fox News television.

Lockwood suggested there was some US reticence over the attempted strike on Saddam, as in the case of his cousin, Ali Hassan al-Majid, nicknamed "Chemical Ali" for ordering the gassing of Kurdish villages in 1988. Majid was believed to have been killed in an air strike on his home in Basra on Saturday.

Suggestions that an Arabic television network had reported that Saddam had been killed stirred financial markets on Tuesday, pushing down safe-haven bond futures. But the three major Arabic networks denied reporting Saddam was dead.

Citing unnamed sources, the newspaper of the Iraqi Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Kurdistani Nuwe, reported on Tuesday that Saddam and his sons Uday and Qusay had gone into hiding in Saddam's birthplace and powerbase of Tikrit, north of Baghdad.

According to a BBC translation of the article, the sources said the destruction of a bridge on the road from the northern oil hub of Kirkuk and Tikrit gave credence to the report.

US Brigadier General Vincent Brooks said on Tuesday that US special forces in the north of Iraq were preventing Iraqi troops moving toward Baghdad or Tikrit. US forces say they now control all major highways out of the Iraqi capital.

The Egyptian news agency MENA said this week rumours were rife that Saddam had arrived in the northern city of Mosul. It cited as evidence an apparent influx of Fedayeen paramilitary fighters loyal to Saddam as well as presidential guards.

Speculation has swirled about Saddam's fate since the United States and Britain launched their war to topple the Iraqi leader on March 20 with a strike on another building in Baghdad where they suspected the Iraqi president was holed up.

Saddam has several doubles who stand in for him and only his son Qusay and security chief are supposed to know his movements.

Taped footage of Saddam, who hardly ever appears live on television, had been frequent in recent days as US forces encircled Baghdad and advanced into the heart of the city.

On Monday, Iraqi television showed footage of Saddam meeting top aides but it was not clear when the meeting took place.

But Iraq's domestic state television and radio went off the air in Baghdad on Tuesday. Earlier, television had failed to broadcast a morning news bulletin and showed only old footage of Saddam being cheered at rallies and played patriotic songs.

Iraq's international satellite television channel has also been off the air for a couple of days.

During what Iraqi television said on Friday was a recent tour, Saddam was seen passing through Baghdad districts including Mansur, where he was greeted by cheering crowds.

Baghdad's Mansur district is a stronghold of Saddam's Baath Party. Security and military intelligence headquarters are located in the area, also home to many military officers.

US military officials said it could take time to determine whether the two earth-penetrating GBU-31 2,000-pound bombs and two delayed-fuse bombs of the same size dropped on Mansur on Monday had hit their intended target.

"It's possible we may never be able to determine exactly who was present without some detailed forensic work," Brigadier General Brooks told reporters at war headquarters in Qatar.

"We believe the strike was effective in hitting the target," he said. "We're not certain who is in charge at this time."

- REUTERS

Herald Feature: Iraq war