KEY POINTS:
LAUNCESTON - In the north of Tasmania two rivers - the North and South Esk, meet and merge into the mighty Tamar, creating a verdant valley that winds past Port Dalrymple and into Bass Strait.
The island's second largest city, Launceston, squats at the junction of the three, the hub of transport systems that wind up to the farming, wine, logging and mining regions on either side of the valley, and south to Hobart.
It is also the hub of one of the most-watched seats in Australian elections, the bellwether electorate of Bass that often tolls the fate of the parties seeking Government.
It is a volatile and uncertain seat, moved as much by Tasmanian dynamics as by federal policies.
From the mainland, much seems to hang this time on the decision to allow local business giant Gunns Ltd to build a new wood pulp mill at George Town, near the mouth of the Tamar, the site of the island's first European settlement and an area of great natural beauty.
The Gunns mill is supported by the State Labor Government because of the revenue and jobs it will create.
Federal Labor, mindful of the disaster at the last election when then-Leader Mark Latham flew down with plans to lock up the island's forests, stomped on environment spokesman and outspoken conservationist Peter Garrett, and added its blessing.
Prime Minister John Howard, who bathed in union support when loggers backed the Government instead of Labor because of its more lenient forest policy, used his powers to approve the mill, subject to stringent environmental conditions.
The memories and lessons of 2004 were clear. Latham's anti-logging policies helped trigger a swing of almost 5 per cent to the Government in Tasmania, securing Bass in what was regarded as one of the pivotal points of Howard's campaign.
There is some concern in rural Bass about possible environmental problems from the mill, but voters tend to regard it either as a necessary boon for employment, or as a done deal that no amount of yelling is going to revoke.
The main centres of opposition are to the south, where activists are threatening protest votes against any politician who supports the mill, and in urban Launceston, where protesters scaled the towering pylons of Batman Bridge.
While the issue has strengthened Green polling, voters who spoke to the Herald in Bass were far more concerned about hospitals, the health system, employment and education.
Many believed Howard had been given his chance, and that it was now time for a change.
Industrial relations and Howard's unpopular WorkChoices laws were a key issue for some. The war in Iraq worried others.
At Beaconsfield, the site of the mining disaster than last year killed one miner and trapped two others, tragedy has joined policies to help swing the mood back towards Labor.
Survivors Todd Russell and Brant Webb have added their weight to the Victorian Labor candidacy of Australian Workers Union chief Bill Shorten, who soared to prominence as the miners' voice during their rescue.
At the last election, the Government won 52.6 per cent of the Bass vote, against Labor's 47.4 per cent.
Labor is also fielding a high-profile candidate in Jodie Campbell, featured alongside Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd in large roadside hoardings proclaiming "Rudd and Campbell for a better Bass".
Campbell's opponent is incumbent Liberal MP Michael Ferguson. With Labor's wider momentum and an apparent local shift against Howard, Ferguson will be struggling to return to Canberra.
