Sea levels no threat to Islands, says scientist

By ANGELA GREGORY

Low-lying Pacific nations are in no danger of disappearing under the sea, says an Australian oceanographer who has analysed over 10 years of fluctuating sea levels in the region.

Dr Than Aung presented the latest data on sea-level records in the Pacific at a gathering of scientists and researchers in New Caledonia this week.

Aung, who teaches at the University of South Pacific, told the New Zealand Herald yesterday that the fears of small nations like Kiribati and Tuvalu disappearing under the ocean were exaggerated.

"We have never believed that these islands will go under water. People will live there for thousands of years yet."

But Aung said that countries like Tuvalu did not seem to want to hear that, as they would rather blame Western countries for their perceived predicament.

He predicted Tuvalu would be particularly loud in its complaints in 2006, when its highest levels of tides were due in February, March and April of that year.

"It has nothing to do with climate change."

Aung said data had been collected for 136 months in a project managed by Australian Marine Science and Technology Ltd, which showed sea levels had both risen and fallen across the Pacific in that time.

There were marked falls in sea levels across the region's countries due to the severe El Nino influence of 1997-98, Aung said.

The data he relied on took into account vertical land movements - land masses rising or falling because of geological forces, and air pressure that affected sea-level changes. Daily tides also affected readings.

He said that although increasing sea temperatures expanded water volume, "You don't put the blame on one angle."

Sea level rise might also be related to a big sea trench near Tonga.