Saudi king offers few clues to future succession

RIYADH - Despite the advanced age of both King Abdullah and his new crown prince, the new Saudi ruler may break with precedent and avoid naming a second-in-line rather than appoint a conservative opposed to his planned reforms.

Abdullah named a crown prince, or heir apparent, immediately after assuming the throne of the world's biggest oil exporter on Monday when King Fahd died. But nearly a week later he has given no hint whether he will nominate an heir to the heir.

The king and Crown Prince Sultan are both believed to be about 81, so the question of the next in line is a real issue - diplomats analyse clues to the succession as keenly as Soviet era Kremlinologists.

Power in Saudi Arabia has passed horizontally between five brothers for half a century and Abdullah's choice of second deputy may influence just when and how control of the oil giant and cradle of Islam finally passes to a new generation.

"That will be the critical stage. It will take the country into unknown territory," said one diplomat in Riyadh.

Abdullah's three predecessors all appointed a second deputy prime minister who went on to become crown prince, but his silence has raised speculation he may leave the position vacant.

The choice is a tough one between Abdullah's half-brother, powerful Interior Minister Prince Nayef, 72, a conservative seen to be resisting some of Abdullah's reform moves, and Prince Salman, the 69-year-old governor of Riyadh.

"My suspicion is that it's a job they won't fill," said the diplomat. "Abdullah and Sultan appear to be very close right now and there's not another prince in sight."

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said on Sunday that the king does not have to appoint a second heir.

"Appointing a second deputy is not a fundamental of the country's laws of governance, it is optional. If the king wants to appoint a second deputy he will do so," he told a news conference in Riyadh.

SENIOR ROYALS

In theory hundreds of princes, grandsons of the kingdom's founder King Abdul-Aziz, will be eligible to lead the country when the new generation takes the reins. But they may still have some time to wait.

The absence of an early endorsement for Nayef, considered the next senior royal, raises the possibility of another prince being named - age is not the sole criterion and several older men have already been passed over - but any alternative is likely to be almost as old.

Salman, who was born in 1936, is seen by many as a canny politician. He has a lower international profile than Nayef or Sultan but as ruler of the conservative capital province he has played a key role for the House of Saud.

Salman himself dropped a heavy hint about Abdullah's intentions this week when he told journalists the appointment of a second deputy was optional.

Looking comfortable in the spotlight, Salman fielded questions on political reform, Islamist militancy and political detainees in Saudi Arabia.

Tellingly for some observers, Saudi newspapers and state television carried his comments prominently two days in a row.

Other senior royals include the deputy Interior Minister Prince Ahmed, a full brother of Sultan, Nayef, Salman and the late King Fahd.

Public Works and Housing Minister Prince Mutib is a cabinet member and another son of the kingdom's founder Abdul-Aziz. Like Abdullah, he is only a half-brother of Fahd and could be an ally of the new king to balance influence within the family.

Other vacancies waiting to be filled which could offer clues to the future direction of the Saudi monarchy include the director of foreign intelligence and ambassador to Washington.

And Abdullah, who is head of the National Guard, may appoint his son Mutib in his place now he is king. Sultan and Nayef have also groomed sons of theirs in the ministries they run - defence and interior - though neither is obliged to step down.

However tough the decisions, they will be taken in private and will be announced only when a family consensus is reached. The kingdom may be an absolute monarchy but it is often steered by a coalition of top princes rather than a single ruler.

"Everyone will be more interested in stability, continuity and the prosperity of the kingdom, rather than advocating a personal agenda," Information Minister Iyad Madani said last week.

- REUTERS