Sars peak past - but only for some

BANGKOK - Outbreaks of the deadly flu-like Sars virus have peaked in Canada, Singapore, Hong Kong and Vietnam, but not in China, where the disease first appeared, says the World Health Organisation.

At least 318 people around the world have died from Sars, which started in China's Guangdong province late last year and has been spread by air travellers to more than 20 countries.

More than 5000 people have been infected by the disease.

WHO's chief of communicable diseases, David Heymann, said last night that the spread of the virus had peaked in all but one of the countries known to have outbreaks as of March 15.

"In China it's on the increase, unfortunately," said Heymann, who was in Bangkok to brief Asian heads of state holding an urgent Sars summit today.

"Taiwan wasn't known to have ongoing transmission then. It was Canada, Singapore, Hong Kong and Vietnam."

These were the four nations where outbreaks were known on March 15.

A patient classified as a probable Sars case has also died in Indonesia, the first such death reported in the world's fourth most populous nation.

Asked if he was confident that the worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome virus could be stopped, Heymann said: "No we are not. We are hoping."

"China is the key and it's the unknown question in the whole formula, because if China cannot contain it then it can't be removed," he said.

Sars kills about 6 per cent of the people it infects and has no known cure.

An official from the WHO said it might take years to find a vaccine.

Heymann said scientists and doctors needed to learn a lot of things about the virus, before its spread could be brought under control.

"We don't understand if it is occurring in an asymptomatic form, which may be already spread around the world as occurred in Aids, with a long incubation period."

The outbreak is having a severe economic impact in Asia, which faced recession, debt defaults and currency crises during the Asian economic crisis of 1997-99.

Hotels, airlines and retailers face slumping sales, hospitals are stretched to the breaking point and experts say the economic costs are bound to rise.

In the most draconian moves so far to control the virus, Taiwan has banned visitors from China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Canada.

Beijing has closed theatres and other entertainment centres.

The Asian Development Bank cut its growth forecast for the region this year to 5.3 per cent, from the 5.6 per cent it expected in December.

It blamed the impact of Sars and an uncertain worldwide economic recovery.

But it says that if the virus can be brought under control swiftly with minimal damage to tourism, Asian economies - excluding Japan - should grow at a faster rate of 5.9 per cent next year.

The World Health Organisation said Vietnam was the first country to contain Sars and said there was still time to keep the disease from spreading much further.

Other Asian Governments are keeping up the fight with quarantines and travel restrictions.

"Vietnam has been able to show the world that there is hope that Sars can be contained," Pascale Brudon, the WHO representative in Vietnam, said in Hanoi.

"It is a very good day for all of us in Vietnam."

Taiwan began enforcement yesterday of a tough 10-day quarantine for visitors arriving from areas hit hard by Sars, prompting airlines to cancel some flights there.

Malaysia sealed off a hospital in Kuching that authorities believe may be the site of a Sars outbreak.

"We hope the cases are not Sars-related," Health Ministry Deputy Director-General Ismail Merican said.

"For now, nobody comes in and nobody gets out of the hospital."

The WHO has lifted all recommendations against travelling to Vietnam, which had five deaths from Sars after the virus spread in February through Hanoi's only international hospital.

Sixty-three people contracted the virus.

But the Hanoi French Hospital was cordoned off on March 11, a move credited with slowing the rate of infection and keeping Sars from spreading beyond its doors.

WHO head Gro Harlem Brundtland said there was still time to keep Sars from spreading globally, through travel warnings and checks of travellers for symptoms, such as fever, dry cough and shortness of breath.

"We still have a chance to contain it and to have it go down in the places where outbreaks are already happening and avoid it spreading to new countries," Brundtland said.

In Taiwan - which has had one Sars death - foreigners arriving from countries hit hard by Sars will be quarantined for 10 days at Government-designated quarters, and returning Taiwan residents will have to stay at home.

Singapore Airlines cancelled one flight to Taipei from Hong Kong, an airlines spokesman said.

The state-run China Broadcasting Corporation said only one Cathay Pacific flight arrived from Hong Kong yesterday, with 24 passengers.

The radio quoted Cathay officials as saying its crew members would immediately fly back to Hong Kong to avoid Taiwan's quarantine.

Police have confined 33 tourists from Hong Kong to their Taipei hotel rooms after a 6-year-old girl in the group was suspected to be infected with Sars virus.

The tourists were held for observation in their third-floor rooms at Kirin Hotel after they returned from sightseeing in central and southern Taiwan.

- REUTERS