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NEW YORK - Cruel, maybe, but it is possible to see Sarah Palin as the Jenny Shipley of American politics; an easy charm grounded in backwoods roots, an elevation that took her out of her depth and a fast-track to a thin political legacy. Both share early but over-stated reputations for hard-headed decision making, Palin as a mayor and Shipley as a minister. Both wanted to be seen as breakers of the order; Palin the maverick from north and Shipley the self-described radical conservative of the south.
Sure, Shipley served as a senior minister and had the balls to bust Jim Bolger to become Prime Minister. And she wasn't hauled out of a small Alaskan town and carted off to Saks Fifth Avenue, Bloomingdale's and Barneys and given US$150,000 by her party to blow on a new wardrobe before they named her candidate for Vice President. But, trust me, you had to attend few Shipley speeches, question times and press conferences to know the job was beyond her.
Neither woman had the compelling biography to break and hold the new ground in the manner of a Ruth Richardson, Helen Clark or Hilary Clinton.
However, whereas Shipley often seemed way too impressed with the last person she spoke to, Sarah Palin-John McCain's running mate and pick for Vice President-appears far from impressed with the Republican Party heavies assigned to mind her and is showing a dangerous but not unwelcome rogue streak as the McCain campaign founders.
It may be that she senses she will be blamed for McCain's failure. Or perhaps she sees herself as a the Republican Party's natural rallying figure upon its defeat and is looking ahead to a Palin-lead party for the 2012 Presidential election. Don't bet on it. Since 1950 only one non-incumbent vice-presidential nominee on a losing ticket has later become their party's presidential candidate (Republican Senator Bob Dole) and none has been elected President.
The US website Politico ran an intriguing piece on Saturday which chronicled a rising Sarah Palin rebellion against her minders and tensions between her and John McCain. Palin apparently believes that her "rollout" was poorly conceived and seems unhappy that she has been prevented from giving even one formal press conference. This may be a foretaste of a delightful American tradition within the party that loses the election. They call it the circular firing squad. Everybody takes aim at each other and shoots bullets of blame.
And you can be sure that whoever had the idea to recruit Sarah Palin will be an early target. If he, or she, can ever be found.
