Russian scientist warns of new Chernobyl catastrophe

MOSCOW - A leading Russian scientist has claimed that the sarcophagus entombing Chernobyl's nuclear reactor number four is dangerously degraded and warned that its collapse could cause a catastrophe on the same scale as the original accident almost 20 years ago.

Professor Alexei Yablokov, President of the Centre for Russian Environmental Policy, said the concrete and metal sarcophagus was riven with cracks, was already leaking radiation and was at risk of collapse unless serious repairs were undertaken and work on a replacement shell urgently begun.

"If it collapses, there will be no explosion, as this is not a bomb, but a pillar of dust containing irradiated particles will shoot 1.5 kilometres into the air and will be spread by the wind. This could be comparable in its scale with the disaster itself."

Depending on which way the wind is blowing, Russia or Belarus would bear the brunt of such a dust cloud. Ukraine, where Chernobyl is located, would also be badly affected.

The sarcophagus is designed to literally keep a lid on what is left of the nuclear reactor that exploded with such dire consequences during an unauthorised test in April 1986 and is supposed to stop the mass of unspent nuclear fuel that lies beneath from entering the atmosphere.

It is estimated that only between three and fifteen per cent of that fuel actually escaped during the explosion meaning that most of it is still trapped inside.

Dr Yablokov, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and a one-time adviser to former Russian President Boris Yeltsin, said that nuclear reactions were actually taking place - spontaneously - inside the sarcophagus as rain and snow fell onto the unspent fuel through the cracks in the decaying shell.

He told Russian media that experts had repeatedly seen a luminescence characteristic of chain reactions inside the giant building.

"Who could predict what might happen if hundreds of thousands of tonnes of concrete, which was hastily poured 19 years ago, tumbled down on the ruined nuclear reactor?"

His gloomy assessment corroborates that of the Ukrainian officials who manage the decommissioned power plant as well as that of other environmentalists.

Earlier this year Julia Marusych, Head of Information at Chernobyl, admitted to Russian TV that the sarcophagus was in an appalling state. She said: "The construction is unstable, unsafe and does not meet any safety requirements."

The sarcophagus was hastily thrown together in the immediate aftermath of the explosion as a desperate attempt to contain what had already become the world's worst nuclear accident.

Many of the construction workers who toiled on it have since died of cancer and the sarcophagus itself began showing signs of serious stress in the early 1990s.

Built to last fifty years, experts were forced to reduce its recommended lifespan to just twenty years meaning that it is due for replacement in 2006. Some repair work was carried out earlier this year but the going is slow due to the fact that construction workers can only be in its vicinity for short periods because of the high levels of radiation.

Sceptics claim that warnings about its deterioration are designed to persuade Western donors to stump up the one billion US dollar bill for a new sarcophagus but scientists have repeatedly warned that the world ignores Chernobyl at its own peril.

A donors' conference is due to take place in London on May 12 at which the Ukrainian government hopes to raise $300m for a new sarcophagus. That task has been complicated, however, by recent revelations that private firms have embezzled some $185m of Chernobyl money, some of which was earmarked for a new shelter.

- INDEPENDENT