Ukraine
The Russian President has called for Ukraine to withdraw its troops from the four regions that Russia annexed in September 2022 and renounce its bid to join Nato as part of any prospective peace deal.
Addressing the nation before launching his invasion, Putin pledged to demilitarise Ukraine by embarking on a “special military operation” in the region.
Putin has previously insisted that Ukraine must reduce its military capacity to prevent it posing a threat to Russia, which could lead to restrictions on long-range missiles, heavy weapons and Western support.
As part of the demilitarisation demand, Russia may even ask for a reduction in or full withdrawal of Nato forces from Poland, Romania and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Above all else, accepting Ukraine as a member of Nato would almost certainly be a deal-breaker for Putin, who has called for a legally binding commitment preventing the country ever being allowed to join the alliance.
Putin is also expected to seek the removal of tough economic sanctions that have led to a depreciated rouble and increased inflation as part of Russia’s post-war recovery efforts.
Agreements on energy exports, including the reopening of Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines to resume gas sales to Europe, would stabilise the Russian economy and open the door to easier trade.
The unfreezing of Russian central bank assets, with over $300 billion (£237 billion) in Western countries, may also provide crucial funding for the Russian Government.
Prisoner swaps
Signs that Trump’s administration was establishing a back channel to Moscow – aimed at improving their relationship ahead of peace deal negotiations – came just weeks into his second term as president. Steve Witkoff, the US President’s envoy, secretly flew to Russia on a private jet to secure the release of Marc Fogel, the American schoolteacher who had been imprisoned for almost four years.
It was the first known trip to Moscow by a senior US official since William Burns, the then-director of the CIA, who flew to the capital in November 2021 to try to halt an invasion of Ukraine.
In exchange, the United States freed Alexander Vinnik, the Russian cybercrime kingpin, who had been extradited to the US on money-laundering charges.
Before he was imprisoned, Vinnik operated BTC-e, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, which the US Justice Department described as one of the main platforms used by cyber criminals for money laundering.
Vinnik, 44, was arrested in 2017 at the request of the US on suspicion of laundering $4 billion through the exchange while on holiday in Greece’s Halkidiki peninsula.
Russia could demand high-profile prisoner swaps, similar to the exchanges of Fogel and Vinnik, as part of their demands to end the war.
Vladimir Dunaev, a Russian national and hacker, was last year sentenced to five years in prison by a US court for cybercrime charges. He was accused of belonging to a gang that deployed a computer banking trojan and ransomware suite of malware known as “Trickbot” and was extradited from South Korea to Ohio in 2021.
In return, Trump’s administration may seek the release of Ksenia Khavana, who was arrested on treason charges, accused of giving a donation to a charity aiding Ukraine. Stephen Hubbard, a Michigan native who was convicted of fighting as a mercenary against Russia and sentenced to six years and 10 months in October 2024, could also be of interest. Moscow could also demand that the US and allies stop sheltering Russian dissidents, such as supporters of Alexei Navalny or former oligarchs, such as Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
Middle East
Russian involvement in the Middle East has been ongoing for centuries and Putin may use Tuesday’s peace talks to expand his foothold in the region.
Since the start of the war, Russia’s partnership with Iran has grown ever closer. The country has been a major supplier of weapons to Russia, including ballistic missiles, drones and other munitions.
Putin has used more than 8060 Iranian-designed drones since the start of the war, according to Ukrainian officials. In response, the US has imposed sanctions on Iran.
But Russia could ask for sanctions to be lifted as part of a peace deal in Ukraine, with greater Iranian oil exports capable of stabilising energy prices, which would benefit Russia’s post-war recovery.
Aside from being close trade partners, Iran and Russia are also allies in the conflicts in Syria and Iraq.
Although the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian dictator, has significantly diminished Russia’s influence in the Middle East, it has not suppressed Putin’s interest in a presence there.
A full or partial US military withdrawal from eastern Syria, where American troops support the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), could be part of Russia’s concessions.
Trump and officials close to him recently expressed interest in pulling US troops out of Syria, leading Pentagon officials to begin drawing up plans for a full withdrawal in 30, 60 or 90 days, according to NBC.
Russia may also demand that the US stops blocking Syrian oil exports, or recognises Assad – who is currently sheltering in Moscow – as the legitimate leader.
Africa/South America
Russia is emerging as the security partner of choice for a growing number of African governments in the region, displacing traditional allies such as France and the United States.
It has aggressively expanded its military co-operation with African nations through the private security company Wagner and its expected successor, Africa Corps. Russian mercenaries have also taken up various roles on the continent, from protecting African leaders to helping states fight extremists.
African leaders have turned to Russia to provide security assistance without political interference, which makes it an appealing partner in countries including Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.
In return, Moscow seeks access to minerals and other contracts.
Africa is rich in minerals, oil and other resources, which come with political and legal challenges.
Its resources are increasingly central to economic and national security, with cobalt used in electronics such as mobile phones and lithium needed for batteries.
Russia may demand that the US stops blocking its investment in African mining, energy, and oil sectors – an action taken during the Biden administration.
It may also ask that sanctions be lifted on Russian companies extracting gold, uranium and rare minerals – the profits of which are used to fund military operations.
Trump and Putin meeting
Trump said he could meet with Putin “very soon” to discuss ending the war in a move that would elevate Russia’s global standing.
By engaging directly with the US, Putin could avoid European scrutiny and potentially secure more favourable terms in a peace deal.
However, Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine would not recognise a peace deal negotiated by the US and Russia if it were not involved in the talks.
“We cannot recognise any things or agreements about us without us. And we will not recognise such agreements,” Zelenskyy said.
“Surely, there is a bilateral track there. And the US has the right to do so if they have bilateral issues. To be honest, they talked about it before. Only now have they started talking publicly. Back then, it was like bad manners – to talk to an aggressor during wartime.”
Ukraine and several EU countries have insisted that without security guarantees, Russia could invade the country again, even if a settlement is reached.
The talks in Saudi Arabia mark another pivotal step by the Trump administration to reverse US policy on isolating Russia and are meant to pave the way for a meeting between the President and Putin.
