Colonel General Sergei Surovikin's appointment signals that Moscow intends to react to Russia's battlefield failures by intensifying the war, analysts say. Photo / AP
Colonel General Sergei Surovikin's appointment signals that Moscow intends to react to Russia's battlefield failures by intensifying the war, analysts say. Photo / AP
Vladimir Putin gave a clue this week about the mastermind behind Russia's heaviest missile onslaught since the early days of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In a television address lauding the operation and warning of more to come, the Russian president said Monday's strikes on cities across Ukraine— launched in retaliation for the attack on the Kerch bridge linking Russia to the annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea — were ordered "at the defence ministry's suggestion".
The remark pointed to Sergei Surovikin, a hardline general named as commander of Moscow's invasion forces two days earlier.
In appointing a man who has earned nicknames such as "the fierce one" and "General Armageddon", Putin has signalled he will react to Russia's battlefield failures by intensifying the war, analysts say.
"Surovikin is like Marshal Zhukov", commander of the Soviet Union's Red Army in the second world war, said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow defence think-tank.
"He's a tough guy who knows how to run a war. He's a real beast, not some dumb vodka-drinking guy or a pseudointellectual. He's a real fighter who isn't scared to tell the higher-ups the truth."
Formerly head of Russia's air force, Surovikin took command as Moscow's faltering seven-month campaign reached its lowest ebb.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, applauds Sergei Surovikin during an awards ceremony at the Kremlin for troops who fought in Syria, December 28, 2017. Photo / AP
In recent weeks, Ukraine has reclaimed territory from Russian occupation despite Putin's decision to unilaterally annex four regions in the south-east — putting Moscow in the humiliating position of losing land it had claimed as part of Russia days before.
The Kremlin has since sanctioned a wave of public criticism of the armed forces as the military's problems with manpower, munitions and logistics, as well as a deeply unpopular mobilisation drive, become too glaring to ignore.
"Russian military problems are not the kind that can be resolved by appointing a different commander," said Michael Kofman, military analyst and director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA, a US defence think-tank. "But if you look at [Surovikin's] performance since the summer [when he commanded Russian troops on the southern front], Russian forces in the south have fared the least worst."
Surovikin, 56, is notorious for his campaigns in Syria, where he served two stints as commander of Russian forces supporting Bashar al-Assad's regime. Human Rights Watch named him among officials who "may bear command responsibility" for attacks on civilians, alleging in a 2020 report that he had ordered attacks on homes, schools and hospitals. In line with those tactics, Russian missiles on Monday and Tuesday hit civilian infrastructure, including a playground in Kyiv, despite continuing claims by Moscow that only military sites were targeted.
Ukrainian officials have claimed Surovikin's appointment and the recent air strikes are part of an intimidation campaign.
"Every escalation, they bring in more dangerous people. This guy was known as the Butcher of Syria. They brought in a bad guy to scare us. But we won't be scared," said Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine's ambassador to the UK. "They finally understood they can't do anything on the ground . . . So they brought in an air forces guy to try. To me, this means Putin is really frustrated, really desperate."
Surovikin's appointment may also appease Russian hardliners who have called for strikes on Ukraine's critical infrastructure, say analysts.
He has had a reputation for ruthlessness since a 1991 coup attempt by Soviet hardliners, when he led an army unit sent to quell pro-democracy protests. The putsch failed and Surovikin was jailed for six months after troops under his command killed three unarmed demonstrators. But the charges against him were dropped and he was released and promoted.
Russian soldiers fire at Ukrainian troops at an undisclosed location in Donetsk People's Republic, eastern Ukraine, October 11, 2022. Photo / AP
Surovikin's subsequent career was marked by brutality and lawbreaking gone unpunished, according to Ilya Venyavkin, a historian who has written about the general. "He's someone who is ready to fulfil orders no matter what happens and never admits any mistakes," he said. "And they will say he did everything right and so he'll be even more cruel next time."
In 1995, Surovikin was arrested for arms trafficking and given a suspended sentence that was later overturned. In 2004, a subordinate in his unit accused him of beating him up, while another killed himself after Surovikin criticised him. During Russia's bloody campaign in Chechnya in the mid-2000s, Surovikin vowed to kill three Chechens for every soldier he lost. Memorial, Russia's oldest human rights organisation, accused his unit of war crimes, including torture, forced disappearances and at least one murder.
Despite his notoriety, Surovikin has shown a capacity for inspiring his men, said Pukhov, of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. "He's been through everything, including two stints in prison, and even that didn't break him. That means he can inspire the troops and has a reputation across the whole armed forces."
The general's reputation has helped win over some of the army's fiercest critics, including Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov and Evgeny Prigozhin, founder of Russian mercenary group Wagner.
Kadyrov said he was "100 per cent satisfied" with the conduct of the war after Monday's strikes, while Prigozhin called Surovikin "legendary" and said his revanchist image was something for all of Russia to aspire to.
"Surovikin didn't have time to get all of his ammunition into his tank in August 1991," Prigozhin posted on social media app Telegram at the weekend. "If he had, we'd be living in a totally different country, one 10 times more powerful."
The praise from hardliners suggests Surovikin shares their demand for the mobilisation of Russia's reserves as "cannon fodder", said Kirill Rogov, a visiting fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna.
Putin's decision backfired at home, with more people fleeing to Kazakhstan to escape the draft than have been conscripted into the army. But calling up an extra 200,000 men allows Russia to fight on without worrying about high casualties, Rogov said.
"In the last few months, they had to be careful about how many men they lost, because the contract soldiers would just rip up their contracts and run away," said Rogov. "Now they can stop caring about . . . high losses."
Surovikin's appointment "fits into the traditional mythology: you have useless commanders who lead the Russian army to defeat and you need some fierce warrior who can turn the war around, sort out supplies and use a strong hand to restore order", said Venyavkin, the historian.
Putin appears to have decided that "the Soviet Union collapsed because they didn't have people ready to use extreme force", he added. "So now if we have a geopolitical threat defined only by Putin and the people in power, they are ready to use any force they deem appropriate to defend against it."
