Researchers have uncovered a new sign that Vladimir Putin could soon escalate the situation in Ukraine, amid growing speculation he could make a "declaration of war" within days. Photo / AP
Researchers have uncovered a new sign that Vladimir Putin could soon escalate the situation in Ukraine, amid growing speculation he could make a "declaration of war" within days. Photo / AP
Researchers have uncovered a new sign that Vladimir Putin could soon escalate the situation in Ukraine, amid growing speculation the Russian leader could make a "declaration of war" within days.
Up until now, Russia had only described the ongoing invasion of Ukraine as a "special military operation", but various experts have speculated that could be about to change.
In recent weeks, Russian forces have been focusing their efforts on the east of the country, ramping up attacks around the Luhansk, Donbas, Donetsk, Mariupol and Kherson regions.
However, researchers from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have discovered Russia's long-term intentions regarding occupied areas of Ukraine seem "confused".
"Some anecdotes from Mariupol indicate that Russia may plan to incorporate Mariupol and the surrounding environs into the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), and possibly annex the DNR to the Russian Federation. Other anecdotes suggest that Russia could directly absorb Mariupol into Rostov Oblast," a recent assessment from ISW stated.
"These inconsistencies could simply be artefacts of reporting or confusion on the ground, but they could also indicate actual confusion about Russia's long-term plans for governing the Ukrainian regions that Moscow's forces currently occupy."
Researchers have uncovered a new sign that Vladimir Putin could soon escalate the situation in Ukraine, amid growing speculation he could make a "declaration of war" within days. Photo / AP
Researchers said this was further proof that Putin had "no intention" of relinquishing his grip on Ukraine.
"These anecdotes clearly support the assessment that Putin has no intention of ceding occupied territories back to an independent Ukraine and is, at most, considering exactly how he intends to govern regions that Russia has illegally seized," ISW stated.
This only adds to predictions that the Russian leader could be preparing for a dramatic escalation on May 9.
May 9 – known as "Victory Day" – is a symbolic day for the nation, marking the surrender of Nazi Germany in 1945 and the end of World War II in Europe.
Each year, a military parade is held on the day, with leaders watching from the tomb of Vladimir Lenin, and delivering a major address to the people.
There are concerns Putin may use the significance of this day to formally declare war on Ukraine, something he had previously avoided doing.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has called the rumours "nonsense", saying there was "no chance" of that happening.
However, there are still multiple experts who believe the Russian leader will use May 9 as an opportunity to justify increasingly brutal action in Ukraine.
"May 9 is designed to show off to the home crowd, to intimidate the opposition and to please the dictator of the time," James Nixey, director of the Russia-Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, told CNN.
UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace agreed that a shift in the invasion could be looming, telling LBC Radio Putin will try to move away from the "special operation" line.
"He's been rolling the pitch, laying the ground for being able to say, 'Look, this is now a war against Nazis, and what I need is more people. I need more Russian cannon fodder,'" Wallace said.
"I would not be surprised … he is probably going to declare on May Day that 'We are now at war with the world's Nazis and we need to mass mobilise the Russian people.'"
There is speculation Russian President Vladimir Putin may be about to officially declare war on Ukraine.
Wallace said the fact that the Russian President had "failed" in many of his Ukraine objectives meant it is even more likely he is looking for a way to show his strength.
Declaring war would allow Putin to draft more conscripts and officially mobilise reserve forces.
Previously, the Russian leader has proven to be undeterred by setbacks, instead using them as fuel to escalate the situation.
Last month, Moscow launched a new major offensive into eastern Ukraine, with Russian forces raining assaults down on key military targets across the country.
The new offensive came just weeks after Mr Putin was forced to pull his forces out of northern parts of Ukraine after they repeatedly failed to capture the capital of Kyiv.
It was an embarrassing retreat for the Russian leader, who had been confident his military would overwhelm Ukrainian forces shortly after the invasion began on February 24.
Even now, soldiers on the ground have felt a change in the response from Russian troops, reporting a noticeable shift in tactics after more than two months of fighting.
Troops on the front line in Temyrivka in eastern Ukraine told the AFP they were watching out for a fresh offensive, saying everything had become eerily "calm" after weeks of non-stop fighting.
"Now it's too calm," said soldier Eugene, who did not give his surname.
"There had been a lot of ruckus around here. And now it's calm … like before the storm, as they say," he said.
