But that’s not the problem. It’s the cold.
“When the temperature is below zero outside, and tens of millions of people are left without electricity, heat and water as a result of Russian missiles hitting energy facilities, this is an obvious crime against humanity,” Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy told the UN on Thursday.
The remaining power supplies are being cycled across the countryside. Towns and cities are stocking up with firewood, generators and rugs.
But it’s unlikely to be enough to combat temperatures of -20C.
“We expect two to three million more people to leave their homes in search of warmth and safety,” warns World Health Organisation regional director Hans Kludge.
That’s Putin’s plan.
“He wants to sow chaos in Europe and undermine Western support for Ukraine, and he also wants to break the will and resolve of the Ukrainian people,” Haring warns.
Weaponising winter
“Putin doesn’t have to use nukes to cause a catastrophe,” former chair of the Ukrainian Parliament’s energy committee Victoria Voytsitska told Foreign Policy.
“It’s impossible to protect Ukraine’s heating system.”
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield accused Putin of “weaponising winter to inflict immense suffering on the Ukrainian people”.
“Having struggled on the battlefield, Moscow is now adopting a cowardly and inhumane strategy that punishes Ukrainian men, women, and children,” she says.
“He has decided that if he can’t seize Ukraine by force, he will try to freeze the country into submission.”
Hospitals are already relying on generators.
But supplies of fuel and spare parts are erratic.
“Continued attacks on health and energy infrastructure mean hundreds of hospitals and health care facilities are no longer fully operational — lacking fuel, water, and electricity to meet basic needs,” says Kluge.
“Ukraine’s health system is facing its darkest days in the war so far.”
For its part, Moscow has declared “mission accomplished”.
“The goal of the attack has been reached,” Russia’s Defence Ministry said in a statement.
Human tide
“As Putin seeks to pound it into submission, Ukraine continues to advance on the battlefield, and its troops’ morale remains high,” says Haring.
“But for the country to survive the winter, butter will be as important as guns.”
Ukraine’s government has appealed to its citizens to minimise their electricity use voluntarily. It has mandated rolling blackouts to share what little remains.
Meanwhile, the mayor of Ukraine’s capital says he is trying to avoid mass evacuations. He’s urging efforts to stockpile water, food and energy supplies. He’s also ordered the creation of 1000 “warmth” centres where residents can congregate.
It’s a similar story in the regional centre of Lviv.
“We are storing a lot of firewood, and we have bought huge supplies of oil and diesel. We must prepare for when the city must live without electricity,” says mayor Andriy Sadovyi.
Europe’s support for Ukraine has been vocal. But it’s been slow to deliver all of the US$9 billion ($14.4b) in promised financial aid.
“Alas, as Ukraine enters the winter, already without power and in the dark, support in the United States is starting to buckle,” warns Haring.
“In September, almost all House Republicans voted against a funding bill that contained US$12b for Ukraine.”
With its economic output cut by up to a third, a lack of liquidity threatens to afflict Ukraine with hyperinflation. And that will only add to the pressures compelling its citizens to flee.
It’s a worst-case scenario for Europe.
“Already German cities, for example, are overstretched in absorbing an influx of over one million refugees from Ukraine,” says Haring. “The refugee crisis is the biggest Europe has witnessed since the end of World War II.”
Double-edged sword
The cold is nobody’s friend. That’s something Putin’s hastily assembled and untrained conscripts are discovering.
“Winter weather could disproportionately harm poorly-equipped Russian forces in Ukraine,” a recent Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessment predicts.
Initial signs support this.
“The newly mobilised, who have not yet been taught how to properly disguise themselves and not unmask their position, and have poor ammunition — they lit fires, smoked in the trenches — unmasked positions for the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” a spokesman for the Ukrainian defence force told local media.
Meanwhile, complaints of no hot food, boots not suited to the cold and a lack of socks are appearing on Russian social media channels.
“Given the advantage the Ukrainians have in equipment training and quality of their personnel against the demoralised, poorly trained, poorly equipped Russians, it would be in Ukraine’s interest to maintain momentum through the winter,” says Britain’s Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.
That appears to be Kyiv’s intention.
“Those who are now talking about a possible ‘pause in hostilities’ due to freezing temperatures in the winter have likely never sunbathed in January on the southern coast of Crimea,” Ukraine’s defence ministry tweeted.
It was a barb implying an intention to take back the peninsula seized by Russia in 2014.
Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy has urged the United Nations to ramp up the pressure on Putin.
“We expect a strong reaction from the world to today’s Russian terror. We expect the reaction of partners. We expect the reaction of friends — not just observers,” he said.
“We expect the reaction of all those who really recognise the UN Charter.”
