Russian President Vladimir Putin is running out of options as war with Ukraine drags on. Photo / Getty Images
Russian President Vladimir Putin is running out of options as war with Ukraine drags on. Photo / Getty Images
Russian President Vladimir Putin is confronted with a debacle of his own creation. His troops are in retreat. His citizens are fleeing conscription. His closest friends are bickering. Can he cut his losses and run?
The prospects are not likely, says former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul.
"The conventional wisdom out there, including analysts in our country and around the world, is that Putin can't accept defeat," he told US media. "He will double down. He'll fight to the end. He might even use nuclear weapons."
It's the classic strongman trap, writes Jamie Seidel.
Putin fears that the moment he shows weakness, he will be torn down by those closest to him. But backing down may be the best strategic option remaining, McFaul says.
"Tragically — and I say this, I want to emphasise that word tragically — if he did say, 'OK, I'm done. Let me have Donbas and Crimea, the places I was basically controlling before he invaded again in February,' I think there'll be a lot of leaders around the world that might support him," he told NPR earlier this week.
That, however, depends on whether or not the man who stylises himself as Russia's "chessmaster" thinks strategically.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is running out of options as war with Ukraine drags on. Photo / Getty Images
And he can't dodge the blame much longer.
Ukrainian forces are driving his troops back in three occupied territories. And several vital strategic cities fell after stage-managed referendums proclaiming them to be sovereign Russian territory.
His bungled attempts to recruit 300,000 conscripts to replace heavy losses have been met with public disdain. A similar number has already fled the country to dodge his draft.
"But the real story of Putin's latest melodrama is that he has unequivocally bet his political survival on "victory" over Ukraine and the West," argues ANU Strategic and Defence Studies Centre fellow Matthew Sussex.
President Putin isn't likely to face an overwhelming public backlash if he abandons his invasion, McFaul argues.
"I think the vast majority of people in Russia are apolitical," he said. "They don't care about this war."
But they do care about their sons, husbands and grandfathers.
"So for him to say, 'Mission completed – we don't need your sons to go die in this war,' my prediction is a vast majority would support that."
The alternative, McFaul says, is increasing ridicule, humiliation – and betrayal.
"Crucially, there are now definite signs his grip on power is starting to fray, even if Putin's demise may still be some way off," Associate Prof Sussex.
"Were it up to me, I would have demoted (Russian commander Alexander Lapin) to private, stripped him of his awards, given him an assault rifle and sent him to the front to wash away his shame with blood," an angry Telegram post by Kadyrov reads.
Another key Putin ally, the Wagner Mercenary Group's Yevgeny Prigozhin, agreed. Via formal press release.
"The expressive statement by Kadyrov is not entirely in my style. But I can say to it, Ramzan, you're a star. Say it like it is!"
He also attacked Putin's personally appointed commander. "Send all these pieces of garbage barefoot with machine guns straight to the front … (Kadyrov should be) "sent to the front to wash his shame off with blood."
Such public bluster doesn't directly target Putin. But it is aimed at his war.
"They weren't talking that way in February," McFaul says. "If that's what's being said in public, I can only imagine what's being said privately by elites in Moscow today."
Chessmaster or Bond villain?
"President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks has been doing his best to adopt the guise of an evil madman," argues Columbia University professor and foreign correspondent Howard French.
"(This) reveals just how bankrupt the thinking of a man long regarded by some as a master strategist has become".
In a speech announcing his formal annexation of Ukraine's eastern provinces, Putin accused the US of embracing "Satanism". He accused Washington of repressing the rights and freedoms of US citizens. He attacked acceptance of gay and transgender rights as a "denial of man".
"His characterisation of Americans as neocolonialists was laughably hypocritical since Putin was literally in the process of announcing the recreation of an empire," Associate Prof Sussex argues.
And his latest threats to use nuclear weapons have rung hollow.
"While there is plenty of reason to worry about the prospect of his resorting to weapons of mass destruction, the common nervous response to the Russian leader's escalatory rhetoric makes it hard to think clearly about whether there is, in fact, anything truly new to Putin's threats," Prof French says.
Meanwhile, President Putin has begun meddling with his troops fighting in Ukraine.
He has reportedly ordered his generals to stand and fight – even as they beg to cut their losses and retreat in an orderly fashion.
"Spinning defeats as temporary setbacks can only work for so long," Associate Prof Sussex said. "And finding others to blame, from false conspiracies about NATO forces fighting alongside Ukrainians, to criticism of field commanders for failing Russia, is also a temporary solution."
Such buck-passing risks turning Putin's privileged elites against him.
"Eventually, it will become patently obvious that the one man who isn't permitted to be criticised – Vladimir Putin – is ultimately in charge of the mess," he added.
