Rudd's poll results cause alarm

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's dog Abby might know something.

Rudd's wife Therese Rein told Dog's Life magazine Abby was psychic, trotting to sit at the front door of their official Canberra residence, The Lodge, 10 minutes before the Prime Minister arrived home, regardless of Rudd's varied and hectic schedule.

Abby could be channelling the nation's opinion polls.

The latest show his deputy, Julia Gillard, is fast closing on Rudd as Labor's preferred leader, amid speculation knives are being sharpened.

The prospect of Gillard replacing Rudd is being widely discussed.

The Government's rapid collapse in the polls, and Rudd's plummeting popularity, have alarmed Labor MPs who will this year face election for a second year in power.

Two polls yesterday gave confirmation that Rudd's long political honeymoon is now little more than a faded sepia-tinted memory as voters punish the Government for a series of backflips, the dumping of the greenhouse emissions trading scheme, hugely costly bungles and the failure to implement promised policies.

A Newspoll in the Australian reported Labor's primary vote continues to slide, with support leaching to the Greens, and the Coalition gaining to lead Labor by 43 per cent to 37 per cent.

The two-party preferred vote that decides Australian elections is running at 50-50 between the Government and Opposition.

Last week's budget appeared to have done little to help the Government, with Newspoll reporting only a lukewarm reaction.

The poll said 44 per cent of respondents considered it a good budget, against 31 per cent who saw it as bad, and 19 per cent who were unsure.

And while 37 per cent did not feel it would affect their financial position in the coming year, 30 per cent believed they would be worse off, compared with 19 per cent who thought their lot would improve.

But the big news in both Newspoll and Galaxy was the rise of Gillard.

There is no real prospect of Gillard even mounting a challenge before the election - let alone winning one - and the Deputy Prime Minister yesterday again laughed off speculation she could tip Rudd out of his job.

"There's more chance of me becoming the full forward of the [Bulldogs rugby league team] than there is in any change in the Labor Party," she said.

Senior Labor ministers also rallied around Rudd.

"I reckon we've got a terrific Prime Minister and I reckon we've got a terrific Deputy Prime Minister," Treasurer Wayne Swan told ABC radio.

But if Rudd loses the election his job will be on the line.

While there could be other strong candidates, Gillard is the centre of speculation because of her job as deputy Labor leader.

Newspoll said support for Rudd as best Labor leader had slipped from 57 per cent in mid-February to 45 per cent.

Gillard's backing as a potential replacement climbed from 32 per cent to 40 per cent.

The Galaxy poll in other News Ltd newspapers said Rudd was preferred as leader by 45 per cent of respondents, against 34 per cent who preferred Gillard, with 21 per cent undecided.

"Julia Gillard is now looking as a credible alternative to lead [Labor]," Galaxy Research chief David Briggs told the Herald Sun.