Rudd talking down early trip to polls

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

The Australian Government is talking down speculation of an early election in the face of further evidence of a shift in voter sentiment and continued threats by the Opposition to block key environmental legislation in the Senate.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has taken another hit in the polls after last week's Budget, and in Western Australia the Greens at the weekend dislodged Labor from one of its strongest citadels in a state byelection.

Rudd is also the target of a growing scare campaign over the size of projected Budget deficits and a bid by Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull to change one of the measures needed to provide promised age pension rises.

Rudd and Turnbull are playing hardball over the possibility of dissolving both Houses of Parliament and going to the polls well ahead of next year's three-year deadline.

Rudd can seek a double dissolution if the Senate twice rejects bills within three months sent to it by the House of Representatives, or passes amendments unacceptable to the Government.

He already has several potential triggers on relatively minor issues, and was eye-to-eye with Turnbull over opposition to the Government's impending second bid to impose higher taxes on "alcopop" pre-mixed drinks as one of its measures to reduce binge-drinking among the young.

Turnbull appears to have blinked, telling Channel Nine at the weekend the Opposition would take a second look at the legislation because of the economic crisis and looming deficits.

"We've got to take into account that the budgetary environment has changed [since the bill was first blocked in the Senate]," he said.

But with minor-party support the Opposition may still try to block the Government's amended emissions trading scheme, which Rudd wants passed to underwrite his credentials at a December climate-change summit in Copenhagen.

Turnbull is also hammering Rudd for breaking his promise not to change tax rebates introduced by former conservative Prime Minister John Howard as a means of encouraging people to take out private health insurance to relieve pressure on the public health system.

Treasurer Wayne Swan announced in the Budget that the rebates would be means-tested to exclude high-income earners and provide money needed to increase age pensions.

Turnbull has said he will amend the bill in the Senate, replacing the means test with a 12.5 per cent rise in tax on cigarettes, despite Treasury estimates that the move would slash Government revenue by more than A$3 billion ($3.8 billion) over the next 10 years.

Despite the thunder, neither leader would be eager to force early polling.

There have been only six double dissolutions since federation - the last in 1987 - and voters tend to resent early elections, especially when it is seen to be political gamesmanship.

Rudd would be especially cautious, given the extreme economic pressures that are expected to put almost one million Australians in the dole queue, pare services to the bone and rack up six years of deficits.

His Budget has been generally well-received by voters who were prepared for tough measures and understood the reason for them.

He also has an eye on the polls. Polling by Morgan and Newspoll this month reported the first slight slide in primary support for Labor, and yesterday a Nielsen poll in Fairfax newspapers confirmed this with a three-point loss for the Government and a six-point rise for the Coalition.

The poll - the first since the Budget - also showed gains by the Coalition in the two-party preferred vote that determines election outcomes.

Labor has slipped five points since the previous poll in March.

But Turnbull will also be aware his chances of winning over Australia by blocking legislation in the Senate would at this stage be slim, at best.

Although the Government now leads the Opposition by a narrower 53 per cent to 47 per cent, Labor remains in a commanding position.

And even with a five-point fall as preferred Prime Minister, Rudd still towers over Turnbull by 64 per cent to 38 per cent.