Rudd in doldrums as challenges mount

CANBERRA - Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was handed some good news yesterday when Australian negotiators finally persuaded the 56 Tamil asylum seekers aboard the Oceanic Viking to disembark this morning.

But it was only one bright glow in a darkening political sky.

As the Tamils prepared to end the month-long standoff that had strained relations with Indonesia and battered the government at home, Navy ships were escorting two more boats, with 54 asylum seekers and crew aboard, into detention on Christmas Island.

Rudd has denied claims that he had misled Parliament over the circumstances of the deal that had enticed the Tamils off the Oceanic Viking. He also refuted accusations that the affair led to Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono postponing his imminent visit Australia.

Jakarta said the cancellation was due to scheduling problems, and that Yudhoyono was likely to visit early next year.

And while Rudd scored a predictable victory in the Lower House with the package of laws that will create his proposed greenhouse emissions trading scheme (ETS) its passage through the Senate continues to look next to impossible.

Further capping a grim beginning to Parliament's final session of the year, a Newspoll in the Australian yesterday showed Rudd had taken large hits on his personal standing. Another poll suggests support for his ETS is sliding fast, and industry is fuming at the likelihood its emissions costs will rise because of the exclusion of agriculture from the scheme.

Rudd agreed to dump agriculture in a bid to win the support of the Opposition in the Senate, but has been warned in return that more concessions will be needed.

Even if Opposition negotiators strike a deal with the government, it has to be signed off by a Liberal Party that will include a sizeable number of climate change sceptics and others who want the scheme delayed until after next month's Copenhagen summit.

Two Liberal Senators have indicated they will cross the floor if the party does agree to the deal and more may follow. The junior Coalition partner, the Nationals, bluntly refuse to vote for an ETS in any form, and two other non-government Senators are unlikely to support the scheme.

Copenhagen has been the big incentive for Rudd to drive his ETS through Parliament by the end of this session next week. As one of the "friends of the chair", Rudd wanted to arrive at the summit with solid evidence of his credentials, and of Australia's role as a climate change leader.

But the Opposition wants to delay a vote until after the summit to ensure that Australia is not committed to anything more ambitious or costly than whatever scheme may emerge there.

Its argument has gathered force with last week's Apec leaders summit decision to prepare for failure at Copenhagen and press instead for a two-step process that would aim first for a political commitment, followed later by an action plan.

Outside Parliament, support for Rudd's ETS also appears to be sliding.

A Morgan poll found that, in the past year, support for the need to act now on climate change had fallen 12 per cent to 52 per cent, and that backing for the ETS has slipped five points to 50 per cent since August.

A Galaxy poll for the Greens reported only 35 per cent support for Rudd's scheme, with more than half wanting a tougher stand on emissions reduction.

The latest Newspoll also bore bad tidings. It said that satisfaction with the way Rudd was doing his job had steadily dropped from October's near-record high of 67 per cent to 56 per cent last weekend, the Australian reported.

But even with two-party preferred support for Labour also sliding from 59 per cent in mid-October to 56 per cent, the Government retains a big lead over the Opposition's 44 per cent as Australia nears an election year.