Revolutionary ideals succumb to realities of post-Soviet era

Realpolitik triumphed over democratic idealism yesterday as two of the most high-profile velvet revolutionaries in the former Soviet Union joined Russian leader Vladimir Putin at the inauguration of Kazakhstan's freshly re-elected autocratic President.

In the Kazakh capital Astana, Viktor Yushchenko, the victor of Ukraine's Orange Revolution, and Mikhail Saakashvili, the leader of Georgia's Rose revolution, attended an ostentatious swearing-in ceremony for 65-year-old Nursultan Nazarbayev.

It was an incongruous event for the two men to attend since, as standard bearers of regime change and anti-Moscow rhetoric in the former USSR, Nazarbayev represents everything they profess to abhor.

The presence of Putin, a symbol of the Russian brand of imperialism they have struggled to throw off, made the moment seem all the more demeaning. It was painfully clear they needed him more than he needed them.

Indeed their presence appeared to underscore the end of the revolution juggernaut in the region and a realisation that Ukraine and Georgia have no choice but to do business with authoritarian regimes that are more powerful and energy-rich than they are.

The Central Asian state of Kyrgyzstan has been the only other former Soviet state to experience a velvet revolution, though that now looks to have been more of a coup d'etat and it is hard to see where the next exercise in people's power might unfold.

That Yushchenko and Saakashvili felt it necessary to pay their respects to Nazarbayev is an irony that will not be lost on the former Soviet bureaucrat, or indeed the Kremlin.

Nazarbayev makes no secret of his distaste for velvet revolutions and is precisely the kind of leader that the uprisings in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan toppled.

In power since 1989, he won a third successive term as President in December, purportedly capturing 91 per cent of votes, an achievement that looks set to see him rule Kazakhstan, an oil-rich country the size of Western Europe, for a further seven years. Though Mr Nazarbayev claimed the elections were held in "unprecedented democratic conditions", Western nations had a very different opinion.

But Kazakhstan and indeed Russia's huge oil and gas reserves were obviously enough to persuade Yushchenko and Saakashvili that they could not be too choosy about the company they keep.

"Although we're people of different experience and different generations, we have found a great common language," Saakashvili said after talks with Nazarbayev, adding that Georgia was learning about economic reform from Kazakhstan.

Yushchenko also held a meeting with the Kazakh leader at which he discussed energy co-operation after Russia cut gas supplies to Ukraine for three days earlier this year as part of a bitter price dispute.

Kazakhstan is expected to become one of the world's top 10 oil producers in the next decade, is the location of the largest oil field to be discovered in the past 30 years, and has large reserves of natural gas around the Caspian Sea.

Yushchenko was also forced to play second fiddle to a confident-looking Putin, who told him that Russia's gas agreement with Ukraine was good for both nations and would be honoured.

The nature of the deal - it effectively doubled the price Ukraine pays for gas - prompted the Ukrainian Parliament to sack Yushchenko's Cabinet on Tuesday.

But yesterday he made it clear that his team would soldier on as a lame duck Administration until parliamentary elections could be held in March, where he will face resurgent pro-Russian politicians.

- INDEPENDENT