A large-scale uprising by people living under the totalitarian regime of Isis (Islamic State) is the most likely trigger that will lead to the undoing of the self-declared caliphate, according to an authoritative report into the jihadist group by the former head of counter-terrorism at MI6.
A detailed appraisal of the organisation, obtained by the Observer, says that, although Isis has performed strategically well so far, its biggest challenge will be controlling dissent and coping with administration in the vast territory it governs.
The report by Richard Barrett, who headed the UN's al-Qaeda and Taliban monitoring team and helped establish the UN's working group on terrorism, is one of the most comprehensive portraits yet of the group. The social media platforms that Isis has exploited successfully to disseminate propaganda will also play a key role in its demise by rapidly spreading discord among the six million people under its rule, the report states.
It adds: "The thirst for change that Islamic State has managed to exploit will not be slaked by its totalitarian approach towards its subjects. In today's world, no state, however remote, can hope to control its population by limiting its access to information or suppressing its ability to think. It will be no more able to harness the social, economic and political forces around it than were the states that, through their failure, allowed the space for Islamic State to grow."
Barrett said that international agencies had recently noted a "slowdown" in the volume of foreign fighters joining Isis, partly because some that had returned home had talked negatively about their experiences. "The fact that many people have gone home and are starting to talk about how bad things are means there's a counter-narrative going on which has helped slow numbers." A UN report revealed that 15,000 foreign jihadis have travelled to Syria and Iraq from more than 80 countries to fight with Isis and other groups. Barrett's report adds "over half come from Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jordan, and Turkey".
