US President Donald Trump, left, and Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy. Photo / AP file
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell could barely hide his glee today moments after Justice Anthony Kennedy announced his retirement.
The move gives Republicans a chance to replace the high court's swing vote with a solid conservative for decades.
It wasn't just a capstone for the six-term Kentucky Republican, who has spent the past year and a half muscling 42 of President Donald Trump's judicial nominees through the Senate, including one Supreme Court justice and 21 appeals court judges.
It was a political gift for the GOP leader determined to hold on to his fragile Senate majority in November's Midterm elections.
A Supreme Court vacancy is a much welcomed jolt as Republicans seek to galvanise core voters in states crucial to their chances - those in which Trump won by double digits and a Democratic senator faces re-election.
"One thing that energises conservatives more than anything else is the Supreme Court," said Senator John Cornyn, (R), McConnell's top deputy.
So McConnell stood on the Senate floor, with a Cheshire cat grin, knowing the vacancy would give him a chance to cement his legacy of packing the courts that has enraged Democrats and thrilled Republicans.
"We will vote to confirm Justice Kennedy's successor this [autumn]," McConnell said.
He added a warning to Democrats: "It is imperative that the President's nominee be considered fairly and not be subjected to personal attacks."
While there is little the opposition party can do to stop McConnell from pushing the already conservative court farther right for generations, McConnell's moment is not without peril.
With a scant 51-49 Republican majority and a hot-and-cold relationship with a mercurial president, the path to confirming a new justice is far from guaranteed to be smooth.
McConnell changed the Senate rules last year to ensure confirmation of a Supreme Court nominee with a simple majority, disposing of the filibuster.
That cleared the way for Neil Gorsuch to fill a high court vacancy that had remained open for more than a year - thanks to McConnell.
In the wake of Justice Kennedy's retirement, the Senate faces a major decision. Republicans say that confirmation votes are allowed in midterm years. Democrats say that @SenateMajLdr's pivotal decision to block Obama's #SCOTUS nominee changed the rules. https://t.co/uiQ29a5JX2
— Twitter Moments (@TwitterMoments) June 27, 2018
WATCH: Majority Leader McConnell says Senate will vote to confirm Justice Kennedy's successor this fall:
— NBC News (@NBCNews) June 27, 2018
"It is imperative that the president’s nominee be considered fairly and not subjected to personal attacks." https://t.co/sxxOmyBp5n pic.twitter.com/RnMXv1OK3H
After the sudden death of Justice Antonin Scalia in February 2016, McConnell refused to fill the seat, blocking President Barack Obama's nomination of Merrick Garland and denying him a hearing.
McConnell insisted that the seat remain vacant until voters had a say in the presidential election, infuriating Democrats.
His gambit paid off when Trump won and Republicans held the Senate.
"I felt, personally, very invested in this issue," McConnell recalled in an interview with the Washington Post last year. He called the evening Trump introduced Gorsuch as his nominee "one of the happiest nights of my Senate career."
Today, in an interview with Politico hours before Kennedy's announcement, McConnell, 76, said keeping the seat vacant was the "most consequential decision I've ever made."
John Roberts will probably be the Supreme Court’s next swing justice. https://t.co/h7PEU2lesV pic.twitter.com/cvu1RRkKVE
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) June 27, 2018
March 2, 2016 https://t.co/MNrA0IIEhr
— Judd Legum (@JuddLegum) June 27, 2018
Electoral considerations could also apply pressure on some centrist Democrats to vote for whomever Trump decides to nominate. Last year, three Democrats broke ranks to vote for Gorsuch - senators Heidi Heitkamp, North Dakota, Joe Donnelly, Indiana, and Joe Manchin, West Virginia. All three face re-election in states Trump won big.
"I look forward to meeting with and evaluating the qualifications of whoever President Trump nominates to become a justice on the Supreme Court," Manchin said in a statement.
"Part of my job as a United States senator is to carefully consider the President's judicial nominees, including for the Supreme Court, and I will thoroughly review the record and qualifications of any nominee presented to the Senate," Donnelly said.
McConnell could well need to find crossover votes. His 51-49 majority is effectively 50-49, as Senator John McCain, (R), undergoes treatment for a severe form of brain cancer. Further complicating McConnell's task: Some Republican senators have gone rogue in recent months, leveraging their clout at a time when even a single vote could prove decisive.
President Trump says he's honored that Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy chose to retire during his presidency and that he wants Kennedy's replacement to serve for 40 to 45 years https://t.co/sayjHwzkGa pic.twitter.com/nnq80YpPQ6
— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) June 28, 2018
Senate Democratic leaders said that McConnell ought to punt the confirmation beyond November, and they signalled they will wage an aggressive campaign opposing any nominee who threatens to undermine abortion rights and healthcare protections for Americans.
"This is the most important Supreme Court vacancy for this country in at least a generation," said Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, (D). "Nothing less than the fate of our healthcare system, reproductive rights for women and countless other protections for middle-class Americans are at stake."
Schumer also suggested following the McConnell model and waiting until after voters have had their say in the Midterm elections.
McConnell dismissed that notion. "There's no presidential election this year," he told reporters.
McConnell's inability last year to fulfill a longtime Republican promise of undoing Obama's signature healthcare law strained his relationship with Trump and turned him into a momentary villain in his own party.
As he has sought to rehabilitate his image, he has emphasised the judicial confirmations the Senate has cleared under his watch. While gridlock has seized this Congress, and Republicans have struggled to reach consensus on immigration and other major issues, McConnell has offered allies a simple and consistent reminder: The Senate is in the personnel business.
It's also meant to be a political baton for Republican Senate candidates to pick up and run with, by reminding their base about the importance of a GOP Senate.
"I'm happy to see a Supreme Court right of centre, as it was before Justice Scalia passed away," McConnell said yesterday.
Not long after the Supreme Court issued a 5-to-4 decision upholding Trump's travel ban that day, McConnell's campaign tweeted a photograph with no caption. It was McConnell and Gorsuch, both smiling and about to shake hands.
.@mercedesschlapp on a time frame for @POTUS' Supreme Court justice nomination: "He wants to move quickly on this." #TheStory https://t.co/OBBEd4uZvx pic.twitter.com/BWpFwbXofr
— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 27, 2018
Collins suggests she won't vote for Supreme Court nominee who doesn't support Roe v. Wade https://t.co/efAnd1Eayq pic.twitter.com/aJHjszq9jg
— The Hill (@thehill) June 28, 2018
A woman in her 50s has been rushed to hospital with significant injuries.