KEY POINTS:
Could the razor's edge contest between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama hinge on the two "primaries that never were" - last month's contests in delegate-rich Michigan and Florida that the Democratic National Committee refused to sanction?
The dispute began when both states violated an agreement that apart from Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, no state could vote before "Super Tuesday".
Determined to boost their say in the process, Michigan and Florida defied the party leadership and moved their primaries forward, to January 15 and 29 respectively.
The Democratic National Committee hit back by decreeing that the results would not count and the delegates at stake - 210 for Florida and 156 for Michigan - would not be seated at the nominating convention to be held in Denver, Colorado, in August. In almost any other year, the row would have been merely an arcane footnote to history. So tight is the race, however, that these 366 delegates could be pivotal if the party assembles in Denver with neither candidate having lined up the 2025 delegates needed to ensure victory, even with help of the 796 "super-delegates", appointed outside the primary and caucus system.
If so, then Clinton looks in the stronger position. In Michigan she won by default, after both Obama and John Edwards took their names off the ballot, in deference to the DNC. In Florida, all three were on the ballot, but did not campaign. Even so an unprecedented number of Democratic voters turned out, eclipsing the previous record of 1.3 million in 1988, and she trounced Obama by 50 per cent to 33 per cent.
Clinton vows to fight to have delegates from both states seated in Denver. If she enters the convention with the largest number of valid delegates, then she could expect to force, and win, a floor vote allowing that to happen. If Obama has more delegates, he might succeed in disbarring two states won by his opponent - but at the cost of appearing an anti-democratic spoilsport.
It would be the first such showdown since 1976, the last time a major party went into a convention without knowing its nominee in advance. That year Gerald Ford, the incumbent president, narrowly led the challenger Ronald Reagan, but without an overall majority of delegates. Ford prevailed, first winning a crucial technical vote about the announcement of a vice-presidential running mate and then the nomination itself, by 1187 delegate votes to 1070.
The upcoming Democratic contests may be as evenly split as those on Wednesday. Obama should do well in Louisiana on Sunday; in Virginia, Maryland and Washington DC on February 12, and in the liberal strongholds of Wisconsin and Washington state seven days later.
Clinton looks well placed in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the three "mega-states" yet to hold primaries, with large populations of Hispanics and middle and lower-income whites who have backed her solidly thus far.
If the deadlock lasts until Denver, it will be hard to resist Florida's and Michigan's claims.
A rejection of Florida in particular makes Democratic strategists shudder. The party, they argue, simply cannot afford to alienate the local Democratic machine in 2008, when Florida could again be crucial to the outcome on November 4. "Down here we have strong feelings about having our votes not count," one local activist said, in a pointed reference to the hanging and dimpled chads, butterfly ballots and the rest which probably cost Al Gore the White House eight years ago.
- INDEPENDENT
