Ready, steady ... and on hold

By ALAN PERROTT and AGENCIES

The United States has amassed 28,000 troops, 300 warplanes and two dozen warships in a cordon stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea, but what happens next remains unclear.

Political and military tensions continue to increase, but predictions for the start of retaliatory action range from within "the next 48 hours" to "likely to be held off".

The US has acknowledged its special forces troops are already active within Afghanistan, saying they are after intelligence on the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden, rather than looking to kill him.

Reports from America said the US still does not know where bin Laden is or have enough information to mount an attack - to be carried out by a small commando unit or the laser-guided GBU-28 "bunker buster" bomb, which can rip through 6m of rock.

One senior US military official gave the New York Times a wry observation on the options for tackling an invisible terrorist enemy.

"It's called A.O.S. - all options stink."

In a radio address from Camp David, President George W. Bush yesterday reiterated his theme that any war on terrorism - including bin Laden, thought to be behind the September 11 bombings, and the Taleban regime which has long given him cover in Afghanistan - would be a long one.

"America will act deliberately and decisively, and the cause of freedom will prevail."

Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday: "We're not going to discuss the timetables we're thinking about for any aspect of this operation".

The prospect of imminent military strikes is being talked down on all sides.

Yesterday General Hugh Shelton, the outgoing chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, again implicitly warned against the "quick-strike, quick-fix" expectations.

An extra complication is the already immense refugee crisis in and around Afghanistan, which a frontal military assault would only worsen.

Under proposals discussed in Washington and London, the first attack, whenever it comes, would be followed by the Afghan leadership being allowed "time to recant" about bin Laden if they want to avoid a second, full-scale, offensive.

But any decision to target the Taleban directly will be seen as a major shift in policy by the Western coalition, whose primary aim, until now, was the capture of bin Laden and the destruction of his terrorist network.

The US suffered a setback yesterday with Saudi Arabia saying it was "nonsense" that the oil-rich kingdom would allow American forces to launch military action from bases on its territory against Afghanistan.

And as the immediate future in the Middle East becomes murkier a report warns that America's military Machine of 1.4 million soldiers is an ineffective tool against terrorists.

The Quadrennial Defence Review, which will guide military strategy and spending for the next four years, said current US capabilities present a "horrific operational risk".

There are now two aircraft carrier battle groups within striking distance of Afghanistan and Iraq with two more on the way.

B-52 and B-1 bombers have been ferried to the British base of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

Britain has 20,000 troops, an aircraft carrier, several ships and dozens of warplanes exercising in Oman.

All of which could be deployed as soon as any shooting starts.

For the moment, immediate retaliation has been put aside as the US rallies broader international support for battling terrorism and uses special forces units and law enforcement agencies to search for bin Laden.

A Gulf television station has claimed three American soldiers are being held by bin Laden's Afghan guerrillas and US officials predict further terrorist attacks.

The Qatar-based Al-Jazeera station yesterday said the soldiers and two guides were on a scouting mission near the Iranian border and were caught with maps showing the location of al Qaeda bases.

The Pentagon last night discounted the story, but stopped short of a complete denial.

They also said there is "no doubt" bin Laden has already organised a counter-punch to any American retaliatory action for the September 11 attack.

A secret intelligence dossier compiled by an Arab country is also claimed to prove a link between two of the hijackers and bin Laden.

The Observer yesterday said the report was compiled by a state with a "longstanding interest" in bin Laden and shows at least one hijacker was trained at an al Qaeda camp in Afghanistan.

It is also claimed to prove another was "close to bin Laden" and American security sources believe four hijackers spent time at the Afghan training camps.

One, Wali Mohamed al-Sherhi, is believed to have been taught urban warfare and terrorism in Farooq training camp, close to the Pakistan border.

American intelligence sources say that the 19 terrorists in the September 11 hijackings may have been financed with a one-off $US500,000 ($1.2 million) grant and, according to an investigation in the Washington Post, they operated not as four random cells as first thought but as a group with leaders and drones.

The CIA began sending teams of American officers into northern Afghanistan three years ago to persuade the leader of the anti-Taleban opposition to capture and if possible kill bin Laden.

The New York Times said the effort was an attempt to work with Ahmed Shah Massoud, the leader of the Northern Alliance rebels who was killed by a suicide assassin two days before the attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Center.

The trial of eight foreign aid workers charged with preaching Christianity resumed yesterday after a three-week suspension following the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States and fears of American retaliatory strikes.

Map: Opposing forces in the war against terror

Afghanistan facts and links