Questions over Arafat's future

By ABRAHAM RABINOVICH

JERUSALEM - The Israeli Government has begun to discuss the possibility of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's departure from the Palestinian territories and his replacement by younger, more "pragmatic," leaders with whom Israel could possibly come to terms.

It was not clear from the Israel Radio report yesterday, clearly derived from senior government sources, whether Arafat's departure was a theoretical possibility, an Israeli plan or a Palestinian fear. Its broadcast was a clear signal to the Palestinians that Ariel Sharon's Government is considering the matter.

The unnamed sources said that if Arafat returns to exile in Tunis, leadership would probably devolve upon the younger security chiefs in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, Mohammed Dahlan and Jibril Rajoub. Ironically, Rajoub's house in Ramallah was hit by three tank shells on Monday in what was apparently an Army blunder.

Rajoub has been one of the few Palestinian leaders with whom Israeli officials have been able to maintain amicable contact during the uprising and he has kept his security forces out of the fighting.

Arafat made Tunis his headquarters before the Oslo accords in 1993 brought him to the Gaza Strip and West Bank as head of the Palestinian Authority. The sources noted that in the Camp David negotiations last year, the younger members of the Palestinian delegation had been willing to make peace on the terms offered by then Prime Minister Ehud Barak and that it was Arafat who rejected them as insufficient.

Increasingly in recent months, government and academic circles in Israel have expressed fears that Arafat's stance, including a demand for the right of all Palestinian refugees to return to Israel, is not a tactical bargaining position, but a core position he will not abandon. Israel regards the return of the refugees as the demographic death knell of the Jewish state.

A possibly significant hint of Israel's readiness to undermine Arafat's status was the delay of several hours last weekend in the departure of his helicopter from the Gaza Strip for Cairo and a conference of Arab foreign ministers. Israel, which controls Palestinian air space, refused initially to permit the helicopter to depart but finally gave in to American pressure. It was the first time that Israel had attempted to curb Arafat's movements.

The sources said ranking Palestinians feared that the heavy pressure Israel has begun to apply was designed to bring down Arafat. Observers recall that in 1982, then Defence Minister Sharon pushed the Army into Beirut in an effort to expel Arafat to Tunis. Members of the Israeli cabinet are reportedly divided over whether the departure of Arafat would be a good thing. Some warn it would bring anarchy.

- HERALD CORRESPONDENT

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