Trump has boasted of a "great victory" in a key test - but the reality is quite different, and a major blow for his future. Photo / Getty Images
Trump has boasted of a "great victory" in a key test - but the reality is quite different, and a major blow for his future. Photo / Getty Images
Donald Trump has hailed a "great victory" for his candidate in Ohio, and claims it was all thanks to him.
The US President insisted there was "a big turn for the better" after he went to the state for the rally on Saturday — and that's a narrative he will try to carry into November's midterms.
In fact, Republican Troy Balderson is barely ahead of rival Danny O'Connor in Ohio's special election, with an unknown number of provisional ballots still to be counted.
Pollsters say even a narrow victory would not be a good sign for the Republican party, in what should be a safe seat. But Mr Trump tweeted that it was "a tough time of the year for voting" and predicted Mr Balderson would "win BIG" when all seats in the House of Representatives go up for grabs in November.
When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. That was not good. After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting. He will win BIG in Nov.
Trump has boasted of a "great victory" in a key test - but the reality is quite different, and a major blow for his future. Photo / Getty Images
What's the big deal with Ohio?
The seemingly insignificant race in America's Midwest could be the clearest signal yet of whether the President will survive another term.
It was part of a flurry of critical votes that could indicate how the elections play out — and therefore whether Congress stays on Mr Trump's side.
The special election in Ohio's 12th congressional district was called to find a replacement for Republican Pat Tiberi, who resigned to move into business.
The two rivals were law graduate and local official Mr O'Connor, 31, and former car dealer and state senator Mr Balderson, 56.
President Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind Ohio Republican congressional candidate Troy Balderson. Photo / Getty Images
The GOP has held the seat for 35 years, but the Democrats have narrowed the gap to virtually nothing.
A FiveThirtyEight poll placed the district at 14 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation, so a poor performance here does not look good for the party.
Why is it so important?
This run-of-the-mill contest between two fairly conventional candidates could tell us what to expect in the midterm elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate.
That will determine whether Mr Trump remains able to push policy through Congress, where both the upper and lower house are currently controlled by the Republican party.
The Democrats need to win 23 extra seats to take control of the House of Representatives and gain the ability to defeat his agenda.
Candidates in close races across the country have been watching "canary in the coalmine" Ohio closely for clues as to what they should expect.
Ohio Democratic congressional candidate Danny O'Connor speaks to reporters after casting his vote in the special election. Photo / Getty Images
Ohio, vote today for Troy Balderson for Congress. His opponent, controlled by Nancy Pelosi, is weak on Crime, the Border, Military, Vets, your 2nd Amendment - and will end your Tax Cuts. Troy will be a great Congressman. #MAGA
The GOP poured millions into the race, and Mr Trump showed he recognised the importance of Tuesday's vote by holding a huge rally for Mr Balderson in the district on Saturday night.
The President also backed the nominee in a tweet, calling Mr O'Connor "weak" on crime, border, immigration and veterans, and likely to reverse tax cuts. It is a message he will continue to hammer home in the months leading up to the midterms.
What does the result tell us?
Despite his bullish tweets, Mr Trump and his party will be worried by the narrow margin, which could mean swing states across the country are at risk.
The former reality star's popularity is at the centre of the matter, with the President continuing to perform poorly in approval ratings and clashing with members of his own party.
On the other hand, he has shown himself to be a master of public relations and tapping into national sentiment. With his 2020 campaign already in action, Mr Trump will be seeing every vote as a test.
Ohio's 12th district is predominantly white but well-educated, and many of the Republicans are centrist, socially progressive and fiscally conservative. "What's going on now in the Republican Party is the polar opposite of what they believe in," Northeast Ohio Democrat Betsy Rader told the New York Times.
Guests cheer for President Donald Trump as he speaks at a rally to show support for Ohio Republican congressional candidate Troy Balderson. Photo / Getty Images
Ohio's Republican governor and Trump critic John Kasich told ABC America suburban women in the state were "really turned off" by the "chaos" that surrounds the President. "It really doesn't bode well for the Republican Party because this shouldn't even be close," he said.
Mr Trump's attack on Ohio-born basketball star LeBron James has also not helped endear him to the state. The President won the state by eight points in 2016, after Barack Obama won it by three points in 2012 — but his star may be fading. In June, a Marist poll found 57 per cent of people in Ohio did not want him re-elected in 2020.
What else are we watching?
Four other states held primaries yesterday — Michigan, Missouri, Washington and Kansas, and these could be significant, too.
In Michigan, Rashida Tlaib won the Democratic nomination to run unopposed for a House seat, setting her up to become the first Muslim woman elected to Congress.
A white Missouri county prosecutor who gained attention in his handling of the investigation of the fatal police shooting of Michael Brown lost a primary challenge to a black Ferguson councilman. Wesley Bell beat St Louis County prosecutor Bob McCulloch in the unofficial results from the Democratic primary on Tuesday, meaning he's all but certain to become prosecutor, with no Republicans on the ballot.
A Washington state representative who resigned his chairmanship following allegations of inappropriate conduct is in third place in early primary returns. Democratic incumbent David Sawyer on Tuesday trailed Democrat Melanie Morgan and Republican Terry Harder. Under Washington's primary system, the top two vote-getters advance to November, regardless of party.
The Ohio race was a major test for Mr Trump and the Republican party ahead of November's midterm elections. Photo / Getty Images
Kansas secretary of state Kris Kobach and governor Jeff Colyer are still neck-and-neck as they awaiting the result for the Republican nomination for governor. Mr Trump has tweeted his support for the former vice chairman of a presidential commission on election fraud Mr Kobach.
This was against the advice of his aides, according to the Associated Press, who fear right-wing Mr Kobach could weaken the Republicans' hold on the state.
These are nailbiting times for the GOP, with an unpopular President alienating many Republicans and galvanising the opposition.
Democrats are hoping a "blue wave" of anger at Mr Trump's divisive policies will send swing states left and erode his power before he wins another term.
