Or perhaps, as Daud Abdullah of the Middle East Monitor put it on Qatar's Al Jazeera: "The decision [to step down] was a pre-emption of what is likely to happen in the region."
Whatever the case, the decision to abdicate and transfer power to his second son, Crown Prince Sheikh Tamim, is the most sensational event to hit the Gulf since the Emir secured the 2022 World Cup for his tiny country .
Emirs, like most Popes, do not resign: they go on until they drop, or can be conveniently ousted. But Sheikh Hamad, who barged his own father out of power in 1995 while the old man was in Switzerland, has brought vast prosperity to his kingdom by doing his own thing.
Some say his decision may have been prompted by health worries: he has had two kidney transplants. But as the inner workings of the Qatari royals remain closed even to Al Jazeera, no one who speaks really knows, and no one who really knows, speaks.
What can be said for certain is that, ruling a country one-quarter the size of Belgium with the world's largest reserves of natural gas and only 300,000 citizens, Hamad has proved acutely aware of both the risks and opportunities Qatar faces. His decision to abdicate was praised around the world as yet more proof of his statesmanship.
Tamim has served by his father's side for several years - it is believed the handover has been planned for some time - yet the Sandhurst-educated 33-year-old is keeping any plans for change firmly under wraps. The calm reaction of the financial world to the handover suggests continuity is the likely outcome.
"This [transition] was expected for a while now, given that Sheikh Tamim was involved in several areas related to economy and foreign policy," a senior trader at NBK Capital told the Wall Street Journal. "Market expectations [of] the young ruler are high as he likely brings to the table longer-term stability in terms of policy."
One thing that will not be happening is a swift move to increased democracy - in one of his last acts Hamad extended the term of the Consultative Council, effectively postponing indefinitely elections planned for later this year.
Tamim, who spent his first day in the top job rubbing noses with well-wishers including the Emir of Kuwait, now finds himself astride an empire that would get even the most jaded billionaire salivating: Harrods, the Shard, large chunks of Barclays (Qatari money controversially saved it from being nationalised after the 2008 crisis), Sainsbury's, Shell and the London Stock Exchange - all these are found in the portfolio of the Qatar Investment Authority, which is believed to have resources of between US$100 billion ($130 billion) and US$200 billion.
Qatar has also played an assertive role in the region, supporting the opposition to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and backing the rebels fighting Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
The Emir's legacy is both extraordinary and paradoxical. In the past decade Qatar has used its vast wealth to create not only Al Jazeera but also the annual Doha Forum, the Qatar Museum Authority, which has built up one of the world's greatest collections of art, and "Education City", which comprises branch campuses of some of the world's leading universities.
Under the forceful direction of Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, known as HBJ, who is also expected to step aside, Qatar has also become a political powerhouse, active in crises from Yemen to the Palestinian occupied territories. Only last week the Taleban opened an office in Doha in expectation of negotiations with the US and Afghan Governments. Qatar reportedly bankrolled it to the tune of US$100 million.
Yet the conservatism of this dynasty compares with anything in the Arab world. The domestic press is fiercely regulated. A Qatari poet who teased the royal family and hailed recent Arab uprisings was given a life prison term, later reduced to 15 years. But Qatar sees no contradiction in aggressively promoting the Arab Spring.
The Emir allowed Israel to open a trade office in the state (closed in 2008 after Israel's attack on Gaza), yet Qatar, like Saudi Arabia, follows the ultra-conservative Wahhabi school of Islam, which opposes integration and encourages jihad. The Emir has vowed to "spare no effort" in spreading Wahhabism across "the whole world".
Art lover, promoter of secular education, founder of a world-class broadcaster yet also an evangelist for a polarising version of Islam: a cynic might argue that Hamad has deployed a huge amount of money to buy the goodwill of the West, making it easier for him to promote Wahhabism's uncompromising views. Whether Tamim sees his mission in the same terms we will soon begin to discover.
- Independent
All eyes on global power
The Shard, Western Europe's tallest skyscraper, and the sight of fleets of tankers carrying natural gas to the rest of the world, will rank among the Emir of Qatar's lasting achievements, but yesterday his legacy was being assessed in the light of his abdication.
With just 200,000 of its own citizens and a land surface that is uniformly barren, Qatar is an unlikely global giant. But fuelled by revenues generated from its natural gas reserves, the worldwide reach of the tiny Gulf Peninsula is virtually unbounded.
Qatar has bankrolled the Arab Spring, bailed out some of the world's biggest banks and built or bought some of the world's most prestigious addresses. By providing an office base and diplomatic cover for the Taleban, it has positioned itself as a key arbiter in Nato's withdrawal from the Afghan war. The long-standing arrangement under which Qatar hosts the headquarters of the American military's Central Command at al-Udeid airbase also means the state is a gatekeeper for any future action to deal with Iran's nuclear threat.
Beyond the realms of such hard power attributes, Qatar is also remarkable for bucking the hierarchical conservatism that has dominated the Arab heartland.
Under the Emir's powerful wife, Sheikha Mozah, Qatar is a notably progressive champion of women's rights. The Qatar Foundation controlled by the former first lady is a powerful force for the emancipation and education of Arab women.
Sources close to the ruling family predict changes of emphasis as a new generation takes over. How quickly the new team will impose a fresh approach on government policy is open to question. In a country braced for change, any backsliding from the relatively liberal measures championed by the previous leadership is bound to provoke domestic and international criticism.
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad has already put his stamp on some of the state's signature gambits, including the national development plan to make Qatar a global hub in the Middle East. While he has worked closely on Qatar's bids for global events he has also taken a greater interest in political Islam. The new Emir is said to be more religious than his father, and pressures have been growing on the Government to do more to preserve Qatar's Arab identity and conservative ideals.
A personable public schoolboy with impeccable English and two accomplished wives, Tamim has close ties with Western military officials and is seen as open and hard-working by foreign diplomats. He is also the prime mover behind Qatar's close alliance with the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.
His Cabinet is expected to be dominated by new faces but there will also be figures well versed in the strategic and economic issues facing Qatar. It will also include women in front-line ministries for the first time.
