KEY POINTS:
President George W. Bush once talked bullishly about Middle East peacemaking. He would "ride herd" on recalcitrant leaders, picking up the telephone whenever necessary and helping produce a long-elusive agreement.
In truth, Bush has been more a sporadic speaker than engaged enforcer during his time in office.
This week's peace conference is an effort by his Administration to step more deeply into the nitty-gritty of settling one of the world's most intractable conflicts.
The conference received a boost yesterday when Syria said it would join the talks. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas were to met Bush at the White House and then attend tomorrow's conference in nearby Annapolis, Maryland, that is expected to kick off formal negotiations to end the six-decade conflict. More than 40 countries are expected to attend.
Two key questions are how much Bush himself will become involved and how much good he could do during his final year in the White House after a hands-off history.
Past Presidents staked much on the Middle East; some even achieved encouraging results. But after decades of fighting between Israelis and Palestinians, there is no resolution to the Palestinians' desire for an independent state. President Bill Clinton brokered Israeli-Palestinian peace talks at Wye River in Queenstown, Maryland, in 1998; at Camp David in July 2000; and in Taba, Egypt, in January, 2001 - all to no avail.
For a host of reasons, Bush has behaved differently.
There was his inclination to discard all things Clinton, coupled with the recognition that past intensive efforts had not paid off. The September 11 attacks and the Iraq war drew the bulk of the White House's attention.
Then there is Bush's personal temperament and a business-school taught management style. He prefers to focus on establishing a grand vision and trusting details to subordinates.
"Hands off would be an understatement," said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli negotiator.
Nathan Brown, a Mideast expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, "What's remarkable is the extent to which he's been disengaged, with only episodic parachuting in with absolutely no follow-up."
To Jon Alterman, of the Mideast Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Bush strikes him "as someone who closes deals, not someone who painstakingly sets them up. Mideast peace needs to be painstakingly set up."
Whether on the Middle East or cherished domestic legislation, the President tends to favour the bully pulpit more than back-room dealing.
Bush has met the pivotal Middle East players many times. But everyone from White House officials to outside observers, when asked about the highlights of his involvement, cites speeches: one on June 24, 2002, when he pledged support for an independent Palestinian state, becoming the first US President to do so publicly; and one this past July 16, when he called for the US-sponsored conference set for Washington and Annapolis, Maryland, this week.
Bush's only effort at direct intervention was brief and disappointing. It was a June 2003 meeting with Arab leaders in Sharm el-Sheik, Egypt, followed by the "Red Sea Summit" in Jordan. Bush presided over talks between former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas, the then-Palestinian Prime Minister who at the time held too little power for anything to stick.
Bush told reporters afterwards that his role was to "ride herd" to keep the process moving. "I show up when they need me to call people to account, to praise or to say 'Wait a minute, you told me, you know, in Jordan you would do this'."
But Levy said Bush's engagement, when it has happened, had proved mostly unhelpful because it consistently had strengthened the Israelis' position over the Palestinians'. For instance, a 2004 exchange of letters with Sharon supported Israel's retention of Jewish settlements near its border and rejected Palestinian claims that refugees had a right to return to Israel.
Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for Bush's National Security Council, said the President had to try something different from the unsuccessful past strategies.
Bush has shown signs of increased personal investment ahead of this week's talks. Last week, he phoned Abbas and Olmert, as well as important outside players.
Bush has scheduled separate meetings at the White House with Abbas and Olmert today and Thursday where the three will have a joint session. Bush plans to address a State Department dinner today for all the participants and is making remarks at the Annapolis session.
Bush will make it clear that the Middle East peace process is a top priority for the rest of his time in office, but he is not expected to advance any of his own ideas on how to achieve that, national security adviser Stephen Hadley said.
- AP / REUTERS
