Polls swing Blair's way ... for a while

By ANDREW GRICE in London

Before the war began, British Prime Minister Tony Blair's advisers judged that many people who opposed it would respect him for not backing down, and would support military action once the fighting started.

In private, Blairites mention a "Thatcher factor" - although many people didn't like Margaret Thatcher, they respected her.

The Blair camp also hoped that patriotic support for British forces in action would help ease pressure on the Prime Minister.

True to the predictions, the opinion polls have turned since the war started, and the numbers of people who approve and disapprove of it have reversed.

The latest survey, by ICM, suggests that 54 per cent of British people support a military attack on Iraq to remove President Saddam Hussein, and 30 per cent are opposed.

In February, the figures were 29 per cent and 52 per cent respectively.

Labour's private polling suggests stronger support among working-class voters, who have swung behind "our boys", than in the professional classes.

This ties in with the findings of MPs who reported before the war that opposition in middle-class constituencies was stronger than in working-class constituencies.

But Blair's advisers also know that public opinion is expecting a quick victory.

The fear among ministers is that if the conflict drags on, the "switchers" who now reluctantly support the war could swing back to hostility.

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Herald Feature: Iraq