Polls show Sharon's party could win without him

JERUSALEM - Ariel Sharon's party and his likely successor Ehud Olmert received a boost yesterday from polls showing they would easily win Israel's March election even without the incapacitated prime minister at the helm.

The latest newspaper surveys put Sharon's centrist Kadima party well ahead of its rivals, though campaigning has been frozen since the 77-year-old leader suffered a massive stroke a week ago.

Doctors said Sharon had shown further signs of recovery and was out of immediate danger as they tried to revive him from an induced coma, but that it could be days before the extent of brain damage is known.

If Sharon lives, medical experts doubt he will ever recover enough to resume his official duties. His absence could throw Middle East peace efforts into disarray.

Kadima, which Sharon formed to capitalize on broad public backing for Israel's Gaza withdrawal in September, already had been widely favoured to win a sweeping victory in the March 28 election.

But after the January 4 stroke, many political analysts had questioned whether Kadima, largely seen as a product of the force of Sharon's personality and shifting approach to the Palestinians, could survive without him.

However, polls in the Haaretz and Maariv dailies found that Kadima led by interim Prime Minister Olmert, Sharon's deputy, would take 44-45 seats in Israel's 120-seat parliament, its strongest showing so far.

The polls predicted the centre-left Labour Party under Amir Peretz would get 16-18 seats while the rightist Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu after Sharon's defection, would fall to third place with 13-15 seats.

Labour secretary-general Eitan Cabel dismissed Kadima's rising position in the polls as "an honest expression of public sympathy" for Sharon and predicted that the effects would wear off by election day.

DOUBTS ABOUT OLMERT?

Many Israelis doubt Olmert, 60, a former Jerusalem mayor and Sharon loyalist who has served in the prime minister's shadow, has the stature and charisma to take bold steps with the Palestinians that Sharon may have envisioned.

Much of Sharon's popularity among Israelis stems from a belief that he could take diplomatic action that no one else could get away, given his background as an archetypal hawk.

He had been campaigning on a platform of readiness to give up some occupied land in the West Bank, but had vowed to hold on to major West Bank settlement blocs, a prospect Palestinians said would deny them a viable state.

Israelis keeping an anxious vigil for Sharon, who has dominated the country's politics in recent years like no figure since founding Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion, have been buoyed by signs his condition was improving -- albeit slowly.

"Metaphorically speaking, we have backed five metres away from the edge of the cliff," Dr. Yoram Weiss, one of Sharon's anaesthetists, told reporters on Tuesday.

His medical team is reducing his sedation to try to rouse him from a medically induced coma, so they can check for signs of brain function.

Doctors said he moved his left hand for the first time on Tuesday after showing response on his right side the day before.

They said it would be several days before the sedatives wore off completely and they could start gauging his ability to think and reason. He has yet to open his eyes.

Israeli websites quoted medical sources as saying Sharon's sedation was expected to be halted completely by Wednesday evening, and the effects could take a further 36 hours to dissipate. The next medical bulletin was set for late afternoon.

If doctors declare Sharon permanently incapacitated, they will pass on their finding to Israel's attorney general. The cabinet would then elect an acting prime minister from Kadima ministers who are also parliamentarians.

Olmert is seen as all but certain to keep the job in the run-up to the March election.

- REUTERS