Polls give Abbott and party a boost

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott arrived at Auckland Airport on his first official visit to New Zealand in February this year. Photo / Dean Purcell

A Budget full of giveaways for families and small businesses has achieved what seemed impossible barely three months ago.

It has sent Prime Minister Tony Abbott's popularity soaring and - possibly - put the Coalition in an election-winning position.

Two polls yesterday put Abbott ahead of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister - according to one survey, for the first time in more than a year. And while they had his Coalition level-pegging with Labor or still somewhat behind, that was seen as enough to put Abbott "back in the game", as one commentator described it, and to fuel speculation about an early election.

At the time of the abortive backbench attempt to topple the Prime Minister in February - when 39 Liberals voted for a leadership ballot to be staged even though no one had stepped forward as a challenger - it seemed inconceivable that Abbott would lead his party into the next election. It seemed equally inconceivable that his Government could win a second term. Now, after last week's Budget - a stunningly different document from last year's austerity package - Abbott has "given himself a fighting chance" to lead the Coalition to victory, according to the Sydney Morning Herald's political editor, Peter Hartcher.

An Ipsos/Fairfax poll showed support for the Government leaping from eight points behind Labor last month to 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis late last week. Abbott led Shorten by 44 points to 39, the first time he has been ahead in that poll since autumn 2014.

A Newspoll in the Australian put the Coalition still six points behind Labor, with 47 per cent. But its primary vote had increased to 40 per cent, regarded as a key threshold if it is to have a chance of winning an election.

And there was a similar boost for Abbott personally, with the poll showing him as more popular than Shorten for the first time since April 2014, before last year's widely reviled Budget.

Although senior ministers yesterday dismissed the idea of an election this year, rather than in the second half of 2016, as scheduled, some experts believe the Government may be toying with the idea of capitalising on it new-found popularity. Particularly well received by voters were the Budget's A$5.5 billion ($5.9 billion) of tax cuts and perks for small business and A$4.4 billion in childcare subsidies.

The Trade Minister, Andrew Robb, a former federal director of the Liberal Party, told the ABC yesterday that the measures had clearly "hit the mark". However, he added that he believed Abbott had no "instinct" to call an early election. "You go into politics to get into government and you seek to get into government to do good things. And I think we'll use every minute of every day that we've got to keep doing those good things."

Treasurer Joe Hockey echoed that sentiment, telling Channel Nine that "we've got work to do, we've got things to build".