Political leaders feel the heat over carbon tax

Australia's fraught bid to cut greenhouse gas emissions is being played out against a background of political tensions testing the leaderships of both Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Opposition leader Tony Abbott.

Neither is under direct threat yet, but the bitter struggle over climate change measures has added to the sense of fragility that has surrounded the Government since the election that last year installed Gillard's shaky minority Labor Administration.

A great deal of Gillard's authority has been vested in her plan to tax carbon from next July, an unpopular reversal of an earlier election proposal. The tax has yet to win the full support of the independent MPs she will need to push it through Parliament.

Labor now trails the Opposition in the polls with the Prime Minister slipping behind her ousted predecessor, Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd, as preferred party leader.

And while Abbott has led the Coalition to a marked lead over Labor, he is a less popular Liberal leader than shadow treasurer Joe Hockey and predecessor Malcolm Turnbull, who was dumped because of his support for an emissions trading scheme.

Turnbull has continued to covet the leadership and buck the party line on climate change, and last week clashed with Abbott over an unrelated, critical, email that sparked renewed suggestions of leadership tensions.

Neither Gillard nor Abbott can afford distractions during the carbon tax debate. The final shape of Gillard's proposed tax is still being hammered out by the multi-party climate change committee, which ended its latest meeting at the weekend still without agreement but expressing confidence one would be reached by the end of July.

As it met, Britain's Guardian newspaper published leaked estimates from the International Energy Agency reporting that greenhouse gas emissions increased by a record amount last year, "putting hopes of holding global warming to safe levels all but out of reach".

The rise meant the goal of preventing a temperature rise of more than 2C - the threshold for potentially damaging climate change - was likely to be just a "nice Utopia", the newspaper reported agency chief economy Fatih Birol as saying.

In Canberra the carbon tax debate erupted into a new round of insults and catcalls as some of Australia's best-known celebrities launched a "we say yes" campaign supporting the tax.

Fronted by actors including Cate Blanchett and Michael Caton, the TV advertisements drew immediate fire from the Opposition, including claims that Blanchett could afford to support the plan because of her wealth.

"I think people are perfectly entitled for their view, but the view of a celebrity counts for no more than the view of the Australian public," Abbott said. "Apparently rich people aren't entitled to express a view unless they are billionaires complaining about a mining tax," Caton told the Seven Network in reply.

The campaign, funded by unions and environmental groups, expanded yesterday with advertisements signed by 140 prominent Australians, including former Liberal leaders Malcolm Fraser and John Hewson, Nobel laureate Peter Doherty, author Tim Winton, artist Ken Done and Wallaby David Pocock.

Gillard has also won highly qualified business support, with the Business Council of Australia and the Australian Industry Group approving a starting price of A$10 ($12.40) a tonne.

The Coalition's rejection of any tax at all is backed by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry whereas the Greens will not accept a price below A$40 a tonne.

Independent MP Tony Windsor, whose vote Gillard will need to pass the tax, says he is still undecided and is concerned Australia could act "when the rest of the world is doing nothing".

Turnbull, ejected by Abbott from the top job in 2009, has criticised Abbott's climate policy, which is both a trading scheme and a carbon tax. Turnbull said he expected Abbott to lead the Coalition into the next election and other senior Liberals said Abbott was not under threat of a challenge.

But frictions between the two have again emerged with the leaking of an email sent by chief whip Warren Entsch to all Coalition MPs rebuking Turnbull and four others for missing votes in the House. Turnbull said the leak "amounted to a press release". Abbott said he had been shown the email before it was sent but considered it was not his job to interfere.