Political heads roll in week of top-level turmoil

Political turmoil is nothing new to the people of Pakistan.

But last week they experienced something unprecedented. A sitting Prime Minister was disqualified by the Supreme Court, the man proposed to replace him was forced to stand aside after a court issued a warrant for his arrest, and a controversial candidate was eventually elected for what most observers say will be a curtailed term.

The disqualification of Yousaf Raza Gilani by the Supreme Court and his replacement by the former Power Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf took Pakistan into further choppy waters as it faces challenges on multiple fronts. The economy is struggling, its relationship with the US is fraught and a crippling power shortage has sparked riots.

"We want peaceful ties with our neighbours Afghanistan, Iran and India. We desire good relations in our region on the basis of the philosophy of peaceful co-existence," Ashraf declared on Saturday in his first address in Parliament. "As a responsible nation, Pakistan will continue to play its role as an enabler and facilitator of peace and stability in the region and the world."

But Ashraf's term as Premier is unlikely to be peaceful. The judiciary, headed by assertive Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, will most likely confront Ashraf, as it did Gilani, demanding that he write to the authorities in Switzerland and ask them to re-open an old corruption inquiry against President Asif Ali Zardari.

The man nicknamed "Rental Raja" by Pakistan's media also faces allegations that he received kickbacks during his term as Power and Water Minister.

Aware that elections must be held before next March, and that forces beyond its control could ensure they take place sooner, Zardari's Pakistan Peoples Party is readying itself for more turbulence. The weeks ahead will be crucial for the party and for Zardari.

The party will face a stiff challenge from Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N and from former cricketer Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, both of which have benefited from Zardari's deep unpopularity.

"They need to get every vote in the national and provincial assemblies to secure his future. He is looking for a second term," said Farzana Shaikh, an expert on the country at London's Chatham House.

Analysts say the drama last week underscores a recurring fault line within Pakistan and the constant challenging for power between elected politicians, the military and the judiciary.

The issue of an arrest warrant for Zardari's initial choice to replace Gilani, Textiles Minister Makhdoom Shahabuddin, on the day he filed his nomination papers, suggests the military, which heads the anti-narcotics force investigating him, is also in the current fray.

"The clashes highlight the fact that organisations are fighting for more powers for themselves and that Pakistan is still in the process of evolving institutions. This is quite usual in periods of transition," said Ejaz Haider, a leading commentator.

The clash between the Peoples Party and Chaudhry's Supreme Court dates back to 2009, when Zardari refused to reinstate the deposed Chief Justice in the face of a lawyer-led movement for judicial independence backed by the opposition and a cross-section of the media.

Zardari was forced to capitulate after a march threatened his Government's stability.

His reluctance was ascribed to a fear that Chaudhry would revive the corruption charges against him - a fear that has now been realised. In a country where the political class is widely seen as inept, distant and venal, there are few places for Pakistanis to rest their hopes. The army is still tainted by decades of military dictatorship that failed to live up to promises of a different, more efficient government.

Chaudhry has been seen as a crusader against corruption and abuse. Never before in Pakistan's history have as many senior government officials been summoned to court to justify their actions. Even the powerful military intelligence agencies have been grilled over their notorious human rights abuses.

But despite welcome efforts to shake off the court's pliant past, now there is growing criticism that it is overstepping its mandate, assuming a political role, and, at times, positioning itself as an alternative government. Some say its decision to sack Gilani was more about politics than the law.

But Pakistan's politicians are unlikely to accept their fate so easily. Zardari has won a reputation for cunning and brinkmanship.

He is not going to let his power quietly drain away.

And the opposition, led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan are in no mood to see their political gains slip into the hands of a non-political coterie.

- Independent