KEY POINTS:
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, made an impassioned plea for national peace and reconciliation yesterday, a few days before a crucial court decision that could see him banned from politics, his party shut down and Turkey plunged into political crisis.
"If there are mistakes and tensions, we need to restore social peace," Erdogan told the right-wing newspaper Hurriyet. "What is important is to live together under this sky in unity."
The statements are seen as a last-minute bid to avert a ban that could spell political disaster for the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP). The legal hearing is due to start tomorrow, with a judgment as early as Wednesday.
Most analysts predict that the country's constitutional court will accept the state prosecutors' argument that 71 MPs, including Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul, are trying to impose a strict Islamic regime on Turkey which, despite its overwhelmingly Muslim population, is a secular state.
The court case comes against the background of a bitter struggle for power between secular nationalists strong in Turkey's military and judiciary, and a populist, largely pro-European, moderate Islamist Government with support among new elites, and particularly the urban middle class.
"Everyone is playing for very high stakes," said Fadi Hakura, an expert on Turkey at the Chatham House foreign policy think tank in London.
A dissolved AKP could relaunch under another name, but the ban on individuals would hit hard, analysts say. "Politics in Turkey is about people, not parties or institutions, and the AKP is very much Erdogan," said Hakura. "If he goes, it is likely that the AKP will be very seriously weakened."
Turkish courts have banned a series of political parties over the last two decades, but none with such popular support or led by such a well-liked figure as Erdogan, who has been Prime Minister since 2003.
Hurriyet said Erdogan had avoided directly commenting on the case but had criticised "the elitists" who "want Turkey to follow what they want in spite of the will of the people".
IN THE BACKGROUND
The crisis has its origins in a move by the AKP, which has followed a largely pro-European moderate line since coming to power in 2002, to amend the law and allow women to wear headscarves in universities. Nationalist conservatives loyal to the secular vision of Turkey's founder, Kemal Ataturk, saw the change as a bid to fundamentally alter the state. The legal amendment was blocked by the constitutional court. Tension has also been increased by the arrest of scores of serving and retired Army officers, lawyers and journalists accused of belonging to a shadowy right-wing network called Ergenekon. The group was alleged to be trying to overthrow the AKP Government by fomenting a coup.
- OBSERVER
