PM under siege as EU poll count looms

Gordon Brown faces two days that could seal his future as British Prime Minister.

If predictions that the far right British National Party will gain at least one seat when the European Parliament election results are announced this morning are accurate, many Labour MPs will see it as a political disaster grave enough to spark a major revolt.

Brown confronts a stormy meeting tomorrow of his parliamentary party, who will be armed with the European count and local elections results that have left Labour without control of any county council in the country.

One former minister is warning that further Government resignations cannot be ruled out. Brown may also risk further dramatic departures when he starts reshuffling junior ministers today.

A leading critic of Brown said that a breakthrough for extremist parties could be the tipping point for a revolt that seemed to be faltering: "It is one thing to lose to the Tories, but actually to do so badly that we are letting in the fascists is quite another."

The BNP predicted, based on voting patterns in the local elections in England, that it should secure at least one MEP and possibly two in the northwest and could even make gains in the East and West Midlands.

The party has never broken through into the European Parliament, and doing so on Brown's watch would be a damning indictment of his leadership. Alarm bells rang last week after the party won a seat on Lancashire county council, part of the northwest region.

One senior Labour source said the party could not confirm until the votes were counted whether the BNP had made its breakthrough, but added: "We have always said that in the northwest they have a chance."

Brown's leading rival, the new Home Secretary, Alan Johnson, also made an extraordinary intervention in the reshuffle drama by calling for James Purnell to be rehabilitated into the Cabinet.

The former Work and Pensions Secretary - who last week resigned, demanding Brown step down - was too "talented" to be lost.

In an interview for the New Statesman, Johnson said Purnell had been "discourteous" and had been wrong, but added: "I think he's a tremendous talent that we've lost from government and it's such a waste that he's gone to the backbenches.

"As James is so talented and as time heals lots of wounds, I'd like to see him back in a Gordon Brown Cabinet at some stage."

Johnson also said he was "pleased that [Alistair] Darling [Chancellor of the Exchequer] was still in the same job", which will be seen as a putdown to the Children's Secretary, Ed Balls, earmarked to take over at the Treasury until Purnell's resignation brought chaos to the reshuffle.

While calling for the Labour Party to get behind its leader, Johnson conceded that Brown would have to change in response to some of his critics: "There are things that Gordon needs to do obviously to react to this. Of course backbenchers, PLP [Parliamentary Labour Party] members, feel that they are not sufficiently engaged, that they are not listened to for whatever reason."

His words reflect a consensus even among loyal Cabinet ministers that the price of Brown's survival will be to consult colleagues more closely.

Today's European election results conclude an extraordinary week that saw four Cabinet ministers - Purnell, John Hutton, Hazel Blears and Jacqui Smith - leave, along with Caroline Flint, the Europe Minister, while backbenchers broke cover in what was dubbed a "peasants' revolt" against the leader.

GORDON BROWN: WILL HE SURVIVE?

Today: Results of European elections. A bad result for Labour could trigger a second wave of rebellion against Brown.

Tomorrow: Brown will address a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party. The rebels are planning to use this event to make it clear he should go. An email with a list of names calling on him to step down is likely to be released.

Thursday: Brown's first Prime Minister's Questions since James Purnell's resignation.

July 25: Glasgow Northeast byelection. Fight for the seat vacated by Speaker Michael Martin is expected to see Labour defeated by the Scottish National Party. A second byelection is due in Norwich North after MP Ian Gibson quit in fury at being banned over his expenses. Labour could lose to the Conservatives.

Recess: Long northern summer holiday away from Westminster has proved to be perfect plotting time - last year David Miliband caused trouble for Brown.

September: Labour Party conference. Armed with the signatures of more than 70 MPs, the rebels could force a vote to trigger a leadership election.

- OBSERVER, INDEPENDENT