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CANBERRA - On Saturday, as Prime Minister John Howard rose to address a Liberal Party conference in Tasmania, federal police in Brisbane were preparing to bring their 14-day interrogation of Indian-born doctor Mohamed Haneef to a close.
They charged him with recklessly leaving a SIM card with a second cousin implicated in the plot over failed bombings in London and Glasgow.
In Launceston, Howard opened his speech with a dire warning about terrorism and Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd's failure to fully meet the challenge. "I say to Mr Rudd, you can't choose to fight terrorism in Afghanistan and not fight in Iraq because the battleground chosen by the terrorists is everywhere."
Yesterday, Howard's zeal was pushed further, after Brisbane Magistrate Janet Pyne granted Haneef bail of A$10,000, citing a list of High Court precedents to rule that his bid met the "exceptional circumstances" required under Australia's tough anti-terrorism laws. Pyne said police did not allege that Haneef was directly involved with the plot. Haneef had no criminal record and a good employment history. His passport had been seized.
Then came a bombshell. Shortly after Pyne's decision, Howard's Immigration Minister, Kevin Andrews, ordered the cancellation of Haneef's temporary work visa and his transfer to Sydney's Villawood Detention Centre. Andrews said that Haneef's detention had nothing to do with his guilt or innocence, nor had it been motivated by a desire to avoid any suggestion that the Australian federal police had failed to establish any real case. He had accepted AFP advice that he could reasonably suspect that Haneef had, or had had, association with persons involved in criminal conduct. Even if he is found innocent, Haneef will now be deported.
Labor has given in-principle approval of the decision to cancel Haneef's visa - following its careful policy of supporting strong, justified action against terrorism - but will seek a separate briefing on the reasons for Andrews' move.
Howard's concern about terrorism is real, but his increasingly frequent and strident rhetoric also reflects a continuing decline in his prospects of winning a fifth term in this year's elections. A Morgan poll released yesterday confirmed that most of his backers support him because he is regarded as a strong leader with a good track record and a history of stable, experienced government. National security and economic management are his two key advantages. In almost all other important fields - social policy, education, the environment, industrial relations - Labor is more highly regarded.
Howard has launched a number of policies to try to blunt Labor's ascendancy in the polls, including climate change initiatives, indigenous intervention in the Northern Territory, and welfare and tax moves. But none have seriously dented the election-winning lead Labor has held since the start of the year. And despite deep fear of terrorism in the suburbs, national security does not at this stage appear to have the same grip on the electorate as in previous elections.
An ACNeilson poll in Fairfax newspapers yesterday further showed that 58 per cent of voters oppose Australian involvement in Iraq, 62 per cent want the diggers to come home and 61 per cent believe Howard's stand on Iraq has increased the risk of terror attack.
While the economy remains strong and unemployment is at a 33-year low of 4.3 per cent, most voters opposed Howard's industrial laws and Rudd has found a receptive audience for his claims of a housing crisis and promises to police grocery prices.
The ACNeilsen poll said Rudd remained preferred Prime Minister and Labor had a huge, 58 per cent to 42 per cent lead in the two-party preferred vote. Last week Morgan gave Labor a 15 per cent lead, and Newspoll in the Australian not only showed the Opposition well ahead, but found the Government trailing in key marginal seats, losing the majority of voters aged over 50, and well behind in all states but Western Australia.
