Plamegate scandal could put Watergate in the shade

WASHINGTON - Presidential second terms are prone to scandals. But the troubles now circling George Bush's White House could be even worse than Watergate.

It might not appear that way at first. Bush is unlikely to have to join Richard Nixon, the only President in United States history forced to resign from office.

But the issues raised by Plamegate are far more significant than those involved in the "second-rate burglary" of the Democratic National Committee's offices in Washington's Watergate complex in the 1970s.

They go to the heart of why America, and its faithful ally, Britain, went to war in Iraq.

The immediate problems are bad enough. On Saturday Vice-President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, Lewis "Scooter" Libby, was indicted for obstruction of justice and making false statements to a grand jury.

Patrick Fitzgerald, the special prosecutor appointed to investigate Valerie Plame's outing, announced that he was not indicting Karl Rove, Bush's closest adviser, although he remains under investigation and may have to give evidence against Libby.

The Administration and its friends have done their best to portray the Plamegate affair as an obscure, "inside the Beltway" scandal, of interest only to Washington obsessives and conspiracy theorists.

Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia, said: "It's not good news but it could have been worse. That's all you can really say. I would emphasise the bad: there is no good way to spin this, though no doubt they will try."

He said Rove would be able to continue to do his behind-the-scenes work from the White House.

But if one believes Bush's Government - actively assisted by that of British Prime Minister Tony Blair - conspired to make a fraudulent case for the invasion of Iraq, then it is possible to see last week's events as nothing less than the first fallout for the Administration of their attempt to cover up what they did.

No one knew where it would all lead when, on June 17, 1972, five men appeared for a preliminary hearing at a Washington court charged over a break-in at the Democratic Party national headquarters at the Watergate complex.

To appreciate the broader potential of Libby's indictment, one cannot avoid a little of the labyrinthine background.

Fitzgerald's investigation focused on the leaking of the identity of Plame, wife of former US ambassador Joe Wilson.

In the northern summer of 2003 Wilson had publicly questioned claims by Bush that Iraq had been seeking to buy uranium from Niger to re-establish a nuclear weapons programme.

The threat of a "mushroom cloud" had been presented to the American public as one of the reasons for a war against Iraq.

Wilson had investigated the claims at the behest of the CIA and found them to be false. Soon after he went public, a conservative columnist, Robert Novak, claimed that Wilson's wife, Valerie, worked for the CIA and that she had suggested sending her husband to Africa. The leak was widely interpreted as an attempt to undermine the former ambassador.

It is now clear that a number of officials spoke to reporters about Plame's identity and her alleged role in sending her husband to Africa.

The indictments accuse Libby of lying about what he told the reporters about her and where he learned she worked for the CIA. Indeed, as the indictment makes clear, one of the sources Libby spoke to about Plame's employment was Cheney.

On Saturday, the news of Libby's indictment on five felony counts - two of lying to FBI investigators, two of lying to a grand jury and one count of obstructing justice - rapidly reverberated around this incestuous and self-regarding city.

Shortly afterwards, at a press conference, Fitzgerald said he believed Libby had repeatedly lied and misled investigators. That was why he had been charged with offences that carried up to 30 years' jail. "We brought these cases because we realised that the truth is the engine of our judicial system. We didn't get the straight story and we had to - had to - act."

Bush said that although he and his Administration were saddened by developments, they intended to "remain wholly focused on the many issues and opportunities facing this country".

In the short term this may be possible. Stephen Hess, a former speechwriter for President John F. Kennedy, said most Americans would have no idea who Libby was or what he had done. Of much greater concern to them was the state of the economy, the war in Iraq and petrol prices.

But such an assessment might ignore what may develop from Libby's trial and what news may emerge in the remaining 39 months of Bush's presidency. There remains the very real possibility that Rove could yet be charged, a much more damaging matter for Bush. It is known that Rove spoke to several reporters about Plame. The indictment also reveals that prosecutors know that an unidentified White House official - "official A" - spoke to Novak. It has now emerged that official A is Rove.

There is also the chance that in Libby's trial prosecutors could seek to call Cheney as a witness. He could be asked how he learned of Plame's identity and whether he knew or even suggested that his chief of staff speak to reporters about her. Wilson has always maintained that Cheney must, at the very least, have been aware of what was happening.

That trial could also examine the activities of the White House Iraq group, a small group of senior officials established in August 2002 and chaired by Rove to coordinate the Government's activities and "sell" the war to the American public. Libby was a member of this group.

- INDEPENDENT