The debate broke open with a series of exchanges on immigration, with Donald Trump arguing that those who are in the US illegally should be sent back to their home countries before some are allowed to return. Former Governor Jeb Bush said talk of deporting that many illegal immigrants was music to the ears of Democrats. "They're doing high-fives in the Clinton campaign right now when they hear this ... We have to win the presidency. And the way you win the presidency is to have practical plans."
Bush appeared more forceful at moments than in previous debates, a helpful change after what was widely judged a weak performance two weeks ago in Colorado. Senator Marco Rubio offered another confident performance, deftly clipping pieces of his stump speech into effective answers on the economy and foreign policy. Senator Ted Cruz was similarly effective in setting forth his conservative vision.
Rubio and Senator Rand Paul went after one another on government spending. Paul upbraided Rubio for calling himself a conservative while advocating a substantial increase in defence spending. Rubio countered that in a dangerous world, more money for defence was a requirement, not an option.
Trump and Ben Carson, the two outsiders, remain atop the national polls. Rubio and Cruz make up the next tier. But the focus of the campaign increasingly will be on the state of play in the early states, particularly Iowa and New Hampshire. Trump and Carson lead in both, but most of the other candidates are picking one of the two states to help propel them towards Super Tuesday and beyond. The Wisconsin debate is the last among the Republicans for five weeks. The candidates will have to rely on campaigning with the goal of generating support by sometime in January; and television advertising that breaks through the media coverage.
Winners
Marco Rubio: Rubio's line about welders making more money than philosophy majors will be quoted all over the place in the post-debate analysis. (And, no, it wasn't totally accurate.) Rubio (pictured) knocked it out of the park when debating military spending and the right role for America in the world with Rand Paul. He got a meatball of a question when asked by the moderators about Hillary Clinton's resume as compared to his own; he, unsurprisingly, answered it well and easily. He oozed knowledge while appearing entirely relaxed. He can come across as slightly too rehearsed, the student reciting things back to the teacher from memory but without actually understanding what any of it means.
Ted Cruz: For the second straight debate, Cruz shone. His line about the tax code having more words than the Bible was a good and memorable one. His repeated denunciations of Washington's "crony" culture will leave a lot of Republican heads nodding in agreement. Cruz proved that of the "outsider" candidates he is the one best equipped to carry their message.
Ben Carson: Carson was more energetic (that's a pretty low bar given his past performances) and more dialed-in than I had seen him. He was helped by a moderator question on his past exaggerations/inaccuracies regarding his life story that would give the term "softball" a bad name and by the fact that none of his rivals seemed interested in taking the fight to him. Carson was, as usual, very shaky on foreign policy and wasn't much better on regulatory reform. But, he did more than enough to keep himself near the top of the field.
Carly Fiorina: She's an able debater and inserted herself into a variety of discussions where she left a positive mark. It also helped that the audience in the room seemed very much on her side. She can come across as too rote at times.
Rand Paul: He (finally) found ways to get his voice heard in a debate. At this stage of his candidacy, that amounts to a win. He's almost certainly too far down in polling - and in the money chase - for it to matter much.
Losers
Donald Trump: Trump stood centre stage but felt ancillary to the conversation. When he did get time to speak, he simply repeated his now-familiar lines - we don't win anymore, I have a great company etc. - and little else. His answers on foreign policy were not good. His random attack on Fiorina - "why does she keep interrupting everybody?" - earned him boos from the crowd (and helped her). Trump just didn't seem all that interested in being there.
John Kasich: The Ohio Governor's strategy was to install himself in the centre of the debate. To do that, he interrupted, cajoled and pouted. His positions on immigration and on Wall Street banks won't win him any support within the GOP base. Kasich seemed peevish, short-tempered and anything but presidential.
Jeb Bush: Bush wasn't bad in this debate. He was far better than the lifeless showing he put in last month. But, he wasn't good enough. Jeb's first answer - pledging to repeal all of Obama's executive orders - was forceful and quite good. But, as the debate wore on, he repeatedly missed chances to jump into conversations and, when he did speak, he was somewhat halting and awkward. Bush just isn't comfortable on the debate stage and it shows.
