Paul Thomas: Presidency likely to trump Donald

Donald Trump, tycoon, reality TV star and proud owner of the world's most elaborate comb-over, is acting like a man who has every intention of running for president.

Plenty of his fellow Americans are keen for him to do so. Last week, he easily topped a poll of potential Republican candidates, gaining more than three times as much support as Sarah Palin, the de facto leader of the opposition since the last election.

Sceptics put it down to name recognition, but it probably also reflects the enduring appeal of the anti-politician, the dynamic outsider who would sweep into office and just do it, as opposed to just talk about doing it.

As a conservative activist put it: "Love him or hate him, [Trump] speaks his mind and gets things done." This fantasy ignores the inconvenient truth that running a country is far less straightforward than running a company, even a large public company.

For exactly that reason it also appeals to self-made men with huge egos, who in their Walter Mitty moments see themselves blasting through the gridlock and resolving intractable issues by the sheer force of their personalities, backed up by the promise to sack anyone who doesn't ask "how high?" when told to jump. Men such as Australian businessman John Elliott.

For awhile in the 1990s, he bestrode the corporate and political worlds by virtue of his controlling interest in Australia's largest company, BHP, and his presidency of the Liberal Party. His admirers were convinced that it was only a matter of time before he parachuted into a safe seat and took Canberra by storm.

But the approach that entranced the "Elliott for prime minister brigade" - impatience with convention and anything that could be classified as red tape, willingness to cut corners, disdain for differing points of view - brought about his downfall and disgrace. He went bankrupt, was convicted of trading while insolvent and disappeared from public life.

In the meantime, the Liberals had turned back to career politician John Howard, the tortoise to Elliott's hare, who proceeded to win four elections on the trot.

When it comes to bankruptcy, Trump has dodged more bullets than Keanu Reeves in The Matrix. But he's a glass-half-full kind of guy, so he'd probably argue that, given the state of the United States' finances, who better to take the helm than someone who has spent years steering his own ship away from the rocks?

US net debt is now more than 70 per cent of gross domestic product. This week, the Standard & Poor's rating agency changed its view of US government debt from stable to negative - the first time that's happened in 70 years.

Trump's years of experience in keeping his creditors at bay while negotiating stays of execution, extensions and bail-outs could certainly come in handy when it comes to dealing with the Chinese and Japanese officials, whose willingness to continue buying US Treasury bills is keeping the US afloat.

Some Trump-watchers believe the whole thing is a publicity stunt aimed at boosting the ratings of his TV show, The Apprentice. Others see his surge in the polls as evidence that the American right's disengagement from reality is gathering momentum.

On a positive note, his popularity with the Republican rank and file may indicate that the influence of the religious right is waning. Notwithstanding his recent trumpeting of churchy values, the fact remains that Trump has five children by three progressively younger wives and, in the past, has presented himself as a live-and-let-live social liberal.

That was then. Now Trump is telling his audiences what they want to hear, as office-seekers tend to do. He's gone from being pro-choice to pro-life and is arguing that seeing the US is involved in Libya, it might as well annex the oil fields while it's at it.

He's also breathed fresh life into the nonsense surrounding Barack Obama's birthplace.

So, is he serious? It's hard to imagine that Trump would be comfortable with or emerge unscathed from the kind of forensic scrutiny to which he'd be subjected to by the other Republican contenders, let alone the Democrats.

This, after all, is a man who has made himself a multi-billionaire by developing property and operating casinos. Given the nature of those industries, particularly in New York and New Jersey, it defies belief that you could do that without cutting a few deals with the devil.

In a recent interview, Trump said experience had taught him that you're generally better off sticking to what you know. When it comes to the crunch, I suspect the Donald will heed his own lesson.