Opposition lines up team for leadership

CANBERRA - Malcolm Turnbull's chances of remaining as leader of the Australian Opposition appear to be rapidly diminishing despite the continued loyalty of the two men who would almost certainly fill the Liberal Party's two top jobs if he fell.

Momentum for change has been building since Turnbull last week attempted to stamp his authority on a restive party by effectively declaring that he would quit if he was refused the chance to negotiate with the Government over a greenhouse emissions trading scheme many of his colleagues oppose.

Now, with former Treasurer Peter Costello quitting politics and two byelections likely in November, dissenters would like to take Turnbull at his word and vote against negotiation at a special meeting on October 18.

They have a replacement team clearly in view: shadow treasurer Joe Hockey as leader with families, housing and indigenous affairs spokesman Tony Abbott as his deputy.

Hockey confirmed on Wednesday that he had been approached regarding a leadership bid. The two men have rejected a direct challenge to Turnbull, but would step in if he fell.

Turnbull is fighting fires on several fronts.

He has a core of hardline opponents within the party who want him gone and will take any opportunity to bring his departure about, his opinion poll ratings - and those of the Coalition - are at rock bottom, and now he has elevated Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's ETS to a test of his authority.

Most Liberals reject the ETS as it stands and do not want Australia committed to any scheme until after the Copenhagen climate change summit at the end of the year, when they can see what the rest of the world is offering.

They fear that Rudd's determination to have an ETS in place to boost his credentials at Copenhagen could severely damage the nation, and want to either vote down his legislation again in the Senate, or to delay a vote until after the Senate.

The junior Coalition partner, the Nationals, reject the scheme outright.

Turnbull's insistence on negotiation could be his back-breaker.

Yesterday he told reporters he had no intention of calling a leadership spill, and that he would "certainly" be the next Liberal prime minister.

He played down speculation over his leadership, saying that disagreements - "some more public or forceful than is ideal" - were part and parcel of political life.

"The fact of the matter is we are focused on one leadership issue alone, which is the lack of leadership shown by Kevin Rudd in the reckless spending that is putting such a heavy burden on Australians today and their children and grandchildren to come," he said.

Hockey said Turnbull had his absolute and unqualified support.

"He always has had that. He continues to have that. He will have that into the future. And I just say to people, the job I want is [Treasurer] Wayne Swan's job."

Earlier, Abbott told ABC radio that the Liberal Party had to unite behind Turnbull if it wanted to avoid years in the political wilderness.

"Twelve months ago when our polls were bad, people thought the problem was [former Liberal leader] Brendan Nelson," he said.

"Now with bad polls some people are tempted to think that the problem is Malcolm.

"The problem wasn't Brendan and it's not Malcolm. It's not even us.

"The problem is the cycle and what we've got to do is avoid anything precipitate that is going to make a bad position worse."