Only matter of time for Milosevic

BELGRADE - Vojislav Kostunica, president-elect of Yugoslavia, predicts that Slobodan Milosevic's regime will soon collapse and says that the political situation in his country is changing "by the hour."

"The change will happen very quickly. The moment we get rid of Milosevic," he said, "the poison will be taken out of the body politic."

"The police and the Army are aware that they can't follow Milosevic to the end."

In what could prove to be a turning point for his regime, police in riot gear sent to break a strike at a strategic coalmine backed away when confronted by thousands of miners and their supporters. The devastating loss of face for President Milosevic could fatally undermine his ability to cling on to power in the face of an apparently unstoppable popular revolt.

Speaking fluent English, the 56-year-old Kostunica stressed that Serbia's emergence from its long decade of darkness would happen more quickly than anyone imagined.

In one of his first interviews since his electoral triumph 12 days ago, which Milosevic has refused to recognise, he said that the fall of the President was inevitable.

Sitting in his party offices, and pausing for thought at each question, Kostunica said the threatened arrests of strikers and protesters: "shows that they have no plan about what to do next."

Kostunica, a lawyer, who drives around in a battered Yugo, is often described as a "moderate nationalist."

In past years, he supported the Bosnian Serb forces and never criticised Serb atrocities. Even now, he seems unwilling to criticise Serb crimes in Bosnia outright.

Meanwhile, although rallies and strikes continued all across Serbia yesterday thousands of Opposition supports were moving to the capital last night to converge on Parliament.

Police tried to move in yesterday at the Kolubara mine, Serbia's largest, which has been on strike since last week. Strikers were asked to "leave the premises peacefully in a reasonable period," but refused to do so.

In a further humiliation for Milosevic, the police backed off when thousands of supporters of the strikers converged on the mine in response to their calls for help. Kostunica raced to Kolubara to rally supporters as the situation snowballed out of Milosevic's control.

"The authorities" are an increasingly elusive concept in Serbia. It is clear that Milosevic is desperate to stop the Opposition rot. But nobody - including, perhaps, Milosevic himself - knows how many in the police or the Army are ready to help him.

Kostunica insisted that the Yugoslav President is no longer powerful enough to crush his opponents with the violence that many still fear. "He'll be careful not to engage in bloodshed. That would be his end. He's aware of that."

Kostunica described himself as "usually more of a pessimist than an optimist."

Optimism now seems, however, to have the upper hand. "Many things here lasted for years. I have learnt to be patient ... But I am sure I will see the political end of Milosevic. In a few days, things will be clear."

Kostunica expressed his impatience with the Russian failure to give full backing to his presidency, despite what according to independent observers was a clear-cut victory on September 24.

"The Russian pressure was not concrete enough. It was very unclear about the results of this election."

Kostunica has been invited to Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin. But he has made it clear that he would not accept the invitation.

He criticised the "shortsighted" policy of the Kremlin, and argued: "The topic of this meeting is very unclear. I won't go under these conditions. They're playing a game with Milosevic, trying to use him in their domestic politics and demonstrating their patriotism - and on the other hand, bargaining with the Americans."

Kostunica, who was as critical of the West during the election campaign as he was of Milosevic, repeated that the Opposition would boycott a run-off vote ordered by Milosevic for Sunday.

"If a second round, why not a third, fourth or fifth round?"

He conceded that the situation was a matter of who blinks first.

"It's a game of nerves, we"re aware of this. But we're quite clear about the [election] results ... We are making our records open - and the regime is hiding records. It's a matter of principle. It's about the will of the people."

Following an announcement by the Constitutional Court late yesterday that was was anulling part of the presidential election, Kostunica said it was a trick by Milosevic to gain time.

The Opposition leader said he feared the court ruling, announced briefly, might be a trap.

"At first glance it might look like a concession by Slobodan Milosevic, but I am afraid that it's a question of a big trap and so there's no need to be euphoric," Kostunica told the independent Beta news agency.

Legal experts said it was not clear if the court ruling meant a recount - what the Opposition wants - or a rerun of the whole vote.

Whatever the outcome of the court's announcement, the Opposition is running out of patience and has set a deadline for Milosevic and the electoral commission to recognise the will of the people: 2 am today (NZ time).

The Democratic Opposition of Serbia, backing Kostunica, did not make clear what it would do if he refused, but called people from all over the country to gather at the Yugoslav Parliament building at the deadline to show the extent of public Opposition to what they call "massive election fraud."

It also demanded the resignation of its head and of the editorial team of Serbia's state television, Milosevic's propaganda machine.

Many reporters working for state media have signed ultimatums to their company managers demanding impartial reporting and recognition of the true election outcome.

The gathering was expected to be a climax of a civil disobedience campaign sweeping Serbia since Monday, with a growing number of workers joining the strike and road blockades.

- INDEPENDENT, REUTERS

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