KEY POINTS:
The Liberal fairytale is this: John Howard wins a fifth term in the imminent election, basks in the glory for a respectable period, then hands the reins to deputy and Treasurer Peter Costello.
Howard thus leaves of his own volition, secure in history as the nation's second-longest serving
leader and one of its outstanding politicians.
Costello is anointed with his stature, helping to cement his position within the party and to assume the mantle of Government, continuing Liberal rule over Australia into the second decade of the 21st century.
But most fairytales have ogres. In this case Costello has several.
There is Kevin Rudd, the Labor Leader who despite recent Coalition gains still outpolls Howard as preferred Prime Minister, and whose party has for months enjoyed a landslide lead in the polls, though nothing is certain until the end of voting.
There are also equally ambitious, younger predators within his own party who are waiting for their chance to spring.
And there are the polls that show Costello is among the least liked of Australian leaders although he has been the minister in charge of a seamlessly bounding economy, and he has been working hard to lift his profile out of the dry confines of Treasury.
A Newspoll in the Australian last week showed that the number of people who said Costello's planned mid-term ascension to leadership would not influence their votes had shrunk 9 per cent to 62 per cent since September, and that 30 per cent now felt the planned handover made them less likely to vote for the Government.
So nothing in this election is certain for Costello, who has worked hard and loyally as Howard's deputy, endured the endless role of bridesmaid and kept his fury at Howard's refusal to go by and large out of public sight.
There is a view that the Treasurer, in former life a successful lawyer involved in a number of landmark industrial cases, will simply pack up his bags and head for big money in corporate Australia if Labor wins.
Rather a big pay packet and the respect of colleagues than the frustration of opposition and the constant battle to keep would-be usurpers at bay, this theory holds.
But politics and power have been a staple of Costello's life.
At the heart of one of the five wealthiest electorates in Australia, Costello's offices in Malvern Rd sit below an accountancy firm, across from a bottle shop that could be useful come election day, and on the fringes of the mansions of Toorak.
Neighbours include trucking titan Lindsay Fox, businessman, Grand Prix and former Commonwealth Games chief Ron Walker, TV personality Bert Newton, and former TV comedian and businessman Steve Vizard.
Costello's children were educated at exclusive Lauriston College, up the road from his electorate office.
Since Howard won power in 1996, he has been politically joined at the hip to the Prime Minister.
But it has been a fraught relationship, with allegations that Howard promised to serve only one term and a half before handing over the leadership, and bitterly disappointing Costello with his refusals to step down.
Costello never had the numbers, or the confidence, to challenge Howard.
When the party seemed close to implosion during the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Sydney, and senior ministers including Foreign Minister Alexander Downer were gauging support for a leadership challenge, Costello declared that he would not seek the job.
It would have been disastrous for both the party and Costello if he had, this close to an election and under the shadow of a looming Labor landslide.
But that has not stopped Costello preparing.
In the run-up to the election he spoke his mind on issues ranging from health, education, child care, the environment and water supplies to gambling, executive salaries, industrial relations, drugs in sport, the US-Australia alliance, and Myanmar.
And he has been more visible in the campaign, although still in the deep shadow of Howard.
But he failed to convincingly flatten Labor counterpart Wayne Swan in their debate last week - the election showcase for both - with opinion divided on who won.
Online polling by Morgan research after the debate reported that voters warmed more to Swan than Costello, with Coalition supporters recording a "less than overwhelming" reaction, and Labor voters a "negative but not devastating" response.
How that will translate to votes on November 24 remains to be seen.
And if Howard's mantle does fall to Costello he will spend much of his time looking over his shoulder.
Although quiet now, a new phalanx of potential leaders is straining at the bit, including Health Minister Tony Abbott, Environment and Water Minister Malcolm Turnbull, and Defence Minister Brendan Nelson.
SHIFT FROM LEFT TO RIGHT
Born just a month before Kevin Rudd - but unlike the Labor leader identified with the past rather than the future - Peter Costello spent a comfortable youth in Melbourne, educated at Carey Baptist Grammar School and Monash University.
Costello's first political instincts were for the left: as a Christian social activist he held office in the Social Democratic Students' Association, linked to Australian Young Labor, the youth wing of the Labor Party.
But he put that behind him as he moved to bigger things.
As a barrister with prominent Melbourne law firm Mallesons Stephen Jaques, he represented the National Farmers Federation in the famous Mudginberri abattoir dispute, in which he scored a key victory over the meatworkers union and established an important precedent for similar actions.
Costello also won a case for the Dollar Sweets confectionery company when he successfully argued that the Supreme Court should bypass industrial hearings and decide the issue on common law.
Politically, Costello swung to the Liberals, becoming one of the founders of the H.R. Nicholls Society, a conservative think-tank.
He won the federal Melbourne seat of Higgins in 1990, was successively shadow attorney-general and finance minister, and finally became Treasurer after Howard won office in 1996.
Gilt-edged Higgins was the seat of two former Liberal Prime Ministers - Harold Holt, who vanished while swimming in 1967, and John Gorton.
