When he was defying so many conventions of American politics as a presidential candidate, Donald Trump was not always wrong. His willingness to challenge conventional strategic thinking in conflicts such as Afghanistan was refreshing even if it was part of an isolationist "America First" attitude to the world generally. Since becoming President, though, Trump has generally followed military advice.
Yesterday he announced a build-up of US forces in Afghanistan, admitting his original instinct had been to pull out of a country where Americans have been intermittently fighting and dying for 16 years. With much more attention focused on Iraq and Syria in recent years, Afghanistan has become, not for the first time in modern history, "the forgotten war".
It acquired that phrase during its long occupation by the Soviet Union, which never managed to subdue rebels supported by the US. When the Russians withdrew, Afghanistan became an Islamic state governed by fundamentalists called the Taliban, products of religious schools in nearby Pakistan. The US took little more interest in the country until it identified a terrorist base in Afghanistan as the source of the attack of September 9, 2001.
By the ends of that year, the US and allies had run Al Qaeda out of Afghanistan and stayed to try to restore a better government in Kabul. For long periods the mission seemed to be succeeding. But in provinces that appeared pacified, the Taliban would occasionally re-assert themselves. Trump, once in office, promised a review of the Afghanistan military commitment. He announced the result in a televised speech to the nation yesterday.
As well as a force increase of unspecified scale and an intended offensive at an unspecified time, he said, "Someday, after an effective military effort, perhaps it will be possible to have a political settlement that includes elements of the Taliban." In the meantime, the US would continue its support for the Afghan government but he added, "Ultimately, it is up to the people of Afghanistan to take ownership of their future ... We are a partner and a friend, but we will not dictate to the Afghan people how to live or how to govern their own complex society."
