Not being Republican enough to sway voters

WASHINGTON - Independent voters are flocking to the Democrats ahead of next month's mid-term Congressional elections, strengthening the prospect of a resounding victory by the party in the House of Representatives, and boosting hopes that it could capture the Senate as well.

According to a devastating poll in the Washington Post, self-proclaimed independents - who account for about a third of the electorate - now say they will vote for Democrats rather than Republicans in their congressional district by a margin of 59 per cent to 31 per cent, usually citing disillusion with the war in Iraq as the prime reason.

However, the change of heart reflects no great surge in affection for the Democrats. Half of independents who had changed their minds said their vote would be in protest at Republican policies. Only 22 per cent said they were enthusiastically embracing the Democrats.

In recent days President George W. Bush has been trying his utmost to change the subject to his successes with the economy, using a string of public appearances to point to continuing solid growth and steady increase in jobs, and the surge on Wall Street, where the Dow has just breached the 12,000 mark for the first time.

Yesterday Bush's aides summoned a group of conservative talk radio hosts - crucial in getting out the Republican vote on November 7 - to spread the message to the faithful from a tent on the White House lawn that all is not yet lost.

But the unrelenting stream of bad news, not only from Iraq, is drowning out such positives as there are.

Almost every day brings a fresh blow for Republicans. Bush's approval rating has meanwhile slumped again to 35 and 37 per cent in two polls published this week, a level close to record lows and that threatens to tar every Republican candidate by association.

The "generic" Democratic edge over the Republicans ahead of the Congressional vote stands at 13 per cent - higher even than the Republican advantage before the 1994 midterms, when the Democrats lost a record 52 seats, and with them the party's 40-year-long control of the House.

Many senior Republicans now concede that Democrats are likely to make the net gain of 15 seats required for the narrowest of victories.

But a much bigger win could be on the cards, analysts say, involving the capture of up to 25 seats to give Democrats a workable majority.

The party is now pouring money into some 40 Republican seats it now thinks are vulnerable, some of them in regions like the South West that previously seemed impregnable.

Scarcely less ominous for Republicans is the outlook for the Senate.

Until recently it was assumed the Democrats would do well - but not well enough to make the net gain of six seats for outright control of the 100-member chamber.

But everything is now up in the air, analysts say.

PRICE OF POLITICS

* Buying power: The Centre for Responsive Politics believes NZ$3.9 billion will be spent by candidates and their allies on this year's campaigns.

* Cost of voting: That comes to an average of $89 a vote on the Senate and and $53 per vote in the House of Representatives.

* Past campaigns: The 2002 congressional election cost $3.2 billion. The 2004 election, which included a presidential contest, cost $6.4 billion.

* Paying for it: Republican have so far raised $886 million and Democrats have raised $858 million.

- INDEPENDENT