North Korea's Kim Jong-il can withstand sanctions

Kim Jong-il

SEOUL - North Korea's elite, from one of the world's poorest countries, may soon have trouble importing the fine cognac they reportedly favor but they are unlikely to buckle under new UN sanctions, analysts said yesterday.

Longer term, the resolution unanimously agreed by the UN Security Council will pinch an already damaged economy but it is the masses who will likely be most hurt.

"The regime has shown it doesn't mind if its people feel the pain," said one diplomat in Seoul of the North Korean government, which is routinely accused of human rights abuses and up to 10 per cent of whose population died during famine in the 1990s.

Under the Security Council resolution over Pyongyang's reported nuclear test, nations can stop cargo going to and from North Korea to check for weapons of mass destruction.

It blocks trade with the secretive country in dangerous weapons, heavy conventional weapons and luxury goods. And it asks governments to freeze funds connected with its WMD program.

"The practical effect is questionable," said Professor Nam Sung-wook of Korea University, an expert on North Korea.

"They (the countries supporting sanctions) are in bed together but they're all dreaming different dreams," he said.

Analysts said that the way China - the nearest the isolated North has to an ally - interprets the sanctions will be very different from Japan, which has demanded tough action.

In an interview at the weekend, former President Kim Dae-jung and architect of South Korea's policy of engagement with the North, said the sanctions would have little effect.

"North Korea is already very familiar with poverty. The country can also get support, at least in order to survive, from countries such as China."

The UN World Food Program's Asia regional director, Anthony Banbury, said his concern was that the overall environment, including action by the North, was making it more difficult to reach people just as aid needs rise.

"I can guarantee you that right now there are severe food shortages. There is no question that there are large numbers of North Koreans ... who are facing quite severe food problems," he said by telephone from Bangkok.

Risk of dangerous vacuum

The diplomat said no one, least of all China or South Korea, wanted a sudden collapse of North Korea's government that could create an even more dangerous vacuum in a country with one of the world's largest standing armies.

"In the short-run, I don't think the sanctions will have a significant impact. They'll have political and symbolic implications," said Park Young-ho, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

But over time there will be a negative impact on the economy and that, Park said, could put North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and his government under greater pressure to rattle the world with another test.

Peter Beck, Korea analyst in Seoul with the International Crisis Group, said he doubted the UN resolution would have any noticeable impact other than to give the North an excuse to ignore the United Nations and conduct a second nuclear test.

"I do not think it will have any impact on putting pressure on the regime or increasing the prospects for regime change," Beck said.

- REUTERS