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KABUL - Bloodshed is spreading to previously stable provinces in Afghanistan, threatening aid efforts as humanitarian workers contend with growing numbers of attacks from insurgents and criminals.
Aid workers involved in redevelopment are not only worried that the rising insecurity is jeopardising projects, but also fear it is pushing disgruntled Afghans into the hands of the Taleban and adding fuel to a guerrilla war that now rages across much of the country.
In the last two months, the United Nations World Food Programme has suffered 12 attacks on trucks transporting goods, compared with 12 in the 10 months before that. Hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of aid has been stolen.
"[They] are typically stopping the vehicles that are carrying food, detaining the drivers and the vehicles for a period of time, offloading the food and usually allowing the drivers and the vehicles to go on," said Rick Corsino, the programme's country director.
A series of regular in-house UN Security Accessibility Maps obtained by the Independent paint the same picture, showing areas considered to be in the top danger category spreading like a cancer across the country over the past year.
Last June few places fell into this category. Most of Helmand was then tagged as the second worst level - a high risk/volatile environment. Large swathes of the provinces of Kandahar and Zabul were high or medium risk, while a significant part of Uruzgan was high risk. Areas of extreme risk did exist in those regions and in eastern provinces such as Khost and Paktika, but they were relatively small in size.
The change since then is stark. In the map for last month, almost all of Helmand, Kandahar, Zabul and Uruzgan is regarded as an extreme risk/hostile environment. Huge sections of the eastern border with Pakistan fall into this category.
Meanwhile, two extreme risk areas now sit on the fringes of Kabul province and a high risk area even exists inside its boundaries.
Corsino said one possible reason for the spike in attacks on the programme's vehicles could be that trucks were now transporting more food than before, but he also feared that a "further breakdown of any kind of order or law in parts of the country" was a contributing factor.
"There seems to be no penalty for those that are doing these things, they seem to get away with it all the time. The risk of being caught out or punished is almost nil," he said.
Although the level of loss to the humanitarian agency is still "tolerable", Corsino is worried because it is increasing. Problems are even cropping up in the north, where most people are traditionally hostile towards the Taleban.
"We have had incidents over the past couple of weeks in provinces and districts where we had never had that before or had not had anything for a very long time," he said.
Acbar, the agency that acts as a link between 94 NGOs and the Afghan Government, is similarly worried about the impact insecurity is having, particularly in the south.
"The radius of activities is shrinking. It's more difficult to go out to further-away districts because travelling there is more dangerous," said Acbar's director Anja de Beer.
"I think you see the difference there: they try to remain present in the province, but it's much more difficult to continue to work in the more isolated areas or to expand."
That poses the risk that the lack of development might add to an already worrying decline in security. Afghans throughout the country often complain they have not received the aid they expected after the United States-led invasion. As a result, some say they will turn to crime or even fight for the Taleban.
On May 30 last year, four Afghans - including three women - working for ActionAid were gunned down in the northern province of Jowzjan. Gyan Bahadur Adhikari, the NGO's country director, believes the dangers are only increasing.
"I cannot particularly calculate what is going to happen tomorrow - that makes me worry," he said. Asked if the situation was getting worse, he replied: "Yes, that is obvious. In the north I used to hear nothing about suicide bombing, now it has started."
But many aid workers believe Afghanistan is not beyond repair and remain hopeful for the country and stress that vital development projects are still taking place. However, they don't share the often upbeat view routinely offered by the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force.
Line of fire
* British troops in Afghanistan have fired almost as many rounds in the past two months as the Parachute Regiment used last year.
* The 1st Battalion Royal Anglians battlegroup has fired almost 400,000 rounds of small arms ammunition.
* The Paras fired 450,000 bullets over six months of intense fighting last year.
* The Anglians have accounted for 600 Taleban dead since April as they attempt to push the insurgents away from populated areas of Helmand province.
* The battalion has suffered 24 casualties and three deaths.
- INDEPENDENT
