He will see the economy as his ticket to re-election. He is about to stamp himself on it — building his border wall with the Obama economy — through tax cuts and the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair.
Market Watch columnist Paul Brandus points out that Trump has yet to sign a major piece of economic legislation. "The first year or so of any administration is just a carry-over from the previous one," he writes.
Shortly after President Barack Obama was inaugurated, the jobless rate hit 9 per cent. "Obama inherited a housing, job and stock market collapse — and [a] deficit that was 9.8 per cent of GDP — from [George W.] Bush. Trump inherited a deficit ... 3.4 per cent of GDP, a stock market that had tripled off its March 2009 low, and a jobs machine that added 14.6 million jobs in the 76 months before he was even elected." In Brandus' opinion, Trump's moves to reduce regulations via executive orders "has helped release animal spirits that can help an economy grow". As to the future, Bloomberg reports joblessness is forecast to "fall to 3.9 per cent by the end of next year, from 4.1 per cent now".
The US economy will be an important background political actor next year, the first of two lead-in years to the 2020 presidential election.
Donald Trump goes into Christmas with his approval rating at 32 per cent and disapproval rating at 56 per cent. Photo / AP
In 2018 we will most likely get answers to these key questions: Will the Democrats be able to win control of Congress next November? What will happen to special counsel Robert Mueller and his investigation? How will Trump and Republicans respond to the Russia report?
At the end of 2017, several factors with impact on future elections are dominating US politics.
1: Unpopularity contests
Trump is unpopular, and the Republicans are trying to push through a tax-cutting, deficit-hiking plan that is also unpopular. A Monmouth University poll this week had Trump's approval rating at an anaemic 32 per cent and disapproval at 56 per cent. A Quinnipiac University poll this week put disapproval of the tax plan at 55 per cent to 26 per cent approval. Republicans support it by 66-11 per cent. "Every other party, gender, education, age and racial group listed opposes the plan," Quinnipiac said.
2: Democrats on rise
The Democrats have finally picked themselves off the canvas of their 2016 defeat and have just won three special elections in Alabama, Virginia and New Jersey. A Twitter thread by @AlGiordano outlines the intensive effort and grassroots focus in play in Alabama. Confidence is high that there is a pattern of voter enthusiasm and a path to success, despite the narrowness of the Alabama victory.
3: So much winning
Trump personally threw his support behind Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore, a former judge accused of sexually harassing teens when he was in his 30s. Trump won Alabama by 28 points just a year ago and he bet wrongly that his base would come through again. His own approval in Alabama exit polls — deeply conservative, usually reliably ruby-red Alabama — was 48-48 per cent. Trump's electoral Teflon and feared connection to his core support that spooked Republican opponents last year have now been tarnished. Polling agencies have noticed some erosion of his support among Republicans in recent months.
4: Eyeing the midterms
The Republican majority in the Senate will be just two, 51-49, once new Alabama Senator Doug Jones joins. The Democrats know that enthusiastic turnout is the secret sauce to whipping up midterm election success. To win the Senate next November, the Democrats will have to keep their own seats and pick up Arizona and Nevada. As for the House, Politico writes: "The President's party has faced a median loss of 22 seats in modern midterm elections. With a current 239-193 seat margin ... that would put the GOP majority right on the edge".
In Trump, the US has a President who relishes, like a juvenile hoon, overturning furniture and forecasts. Republicans in Congress have been largely content to oil his wheels as they focus on getting the tax cuts passed. But will that continue with the fresh pointer to a potential Democrat tsunami next November?
In Alabama, turnout "crushed state officials' 25 per cent expectations, ending up closer to 40 per cent", Politico reports.
Trump's poll numbers "are clearly scaring Republicans on Capitol Hill", Politico says. The fans in his core base may be tenacious in their support, but no modern-era US president has been so unpopular so early.
Donald Trump's first year in power has be marked by protests at home and abroad, including this month in Chicago over his decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Photo / AP
"It's the generic 'Republican vs Democrat' poll that is most concerning for Republicans," Politico reports. "Right now, Democrats have a 15-point lead, Monmouth said. For comparison, when Democrats won the House in 2006, they had a 10.5-point lead in the generic poll." The ongoing investigation into alleged Russian meddling into the 2016 election threatens to draw in even more senior figures in Trump's orbit. So far Mueller's investigation has resulted in two guilty pleas and two indictments of presidential advisers. Accusations of sexual misconduct against the President, raised before the November election, have flared in the #MeToo glare. These clinging questions make Trump vulnerable at a time of rising Republican nervousness at their electoral prospects. The Mueller investigation has recently come in for criticism from congressional Republicans. Will that change? If it comes to it, would Trump go quietly?
It was Trump who stacked the fuel for the #MeToo movement with his sexist comments and behaviour during last year's election, even if Harvey Weinstein later lit the torch. A massive, multi-city, grassroots-organised women's march greeted the newly inaugurated leader in January. The women's march and the protests over Trump's immigration travel ban were the first signs of a Democratic recovery after the party's gloom over Hillary Clinton's election defeat.
Jones' shock win in Alabama was powered by the support of African Americans in particular; women and voters under 45.
Amy Walter of Cook Political Report tweeted: "Jones got 94% of Clinton vote. Moore took just 50% of Trump vote. This over performance by D, under by R has been pretty consistent in 2017 specials." CNBC political reporter John Harwood tweeted: "One measure of superior Dem enthusiasm/turnout in AL Senate special: in state he won nearly 2-to-1 in 2016, voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumbered strong approvers by 40%-33%." Writing in the Atlantic, analyst Ronald Brownstein says: "Jones beat Moore with a strong turnout and a crushing lead among African Americans, a decisive advantage among younger voters, and major gains among college-educated and suburban whites, especially women. That allowed Jones to overcome big margins for Moore among the key elements of Trump's coalition: older, blue-collar, evangelical, and nonurban white voters.
"The consistency of these results suggests that Democrats are coalescing a powerful coalition of the very voters that polls have shown are the most disenchanted, even disgusted, by Trump's performance and behaviour as president." The Democrats have major issues of their own, including factional fighting and the balancing act of attacking Trump and still presenting a positive alternative agenda.
In his first year Trump has pitched himself full tilt into the culture wars of his country. Criticising African American athletes protesting at police violence; Hispanic and liberal judges; families of Muslim and black dead soldiers. Giving cover for right-wing extremists to have a voice and a profile. Pursuing a ban on immigrants from various Muslim-majority countries. Backing an evangelical former judge for office who was accused of harassing teen girls when in his 30s. Being slower to respond to Puerto Rico's hurricane emergency than to the mainland disasters in Texas and Florida.
President Donald Trump departs after speaking about tax reform in the Grand Foyer of the White House. Photo / AP
The tax plan before Congress would be Trump's only major legislative win if it passes. Obamacare has yet to be repealed and replaced. The border wall is a slow work in progress with no sign of Mexico paying for it. The travel ban has spent months in legal dispute, though the Supreme Court has allowed the third version of it as legal work continues in lower courts. The deal on Iran's nuclear programme is still alive even though Trump did not re-certify it in October.
Senior officials, including Chief of Staff Reince Prebus, press secretary Sean Spicer, strategist Steve Bannon, FBI Director James Comey and National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, have left or been fired.
Trump did manage to fulfil a promise to withdraw from the Paris agreement on climate change, but the move has left the US estranged from traditional allies. The US is now alone in its position as previous hold-outs Syria and Nicaragua have signed on. Trump also promised to move the US embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This month he formally recognised Jerusalem as Israel's capital, sparking protests.
Just the shift from the mostly scandal-free Obama years, with their sober tone, fashionable factor and promotion of diversity, to the Trumps has been a shock. Searches for a conservative comparison resulted in a George W. Bush revival. The Donald made Dubya look good.
In the lead-up to the Alabama election, author Steve Silberman tweeted that Trump's endorsement of Moore in Alabama "is about Trump's ability to hypnotise his base to support even a blatant molester. The farther he moves them from their own moral centre, the more power he has to define their reality. It's barely about politics. It's about his cult, his power, HIM".
Trump inspires outsized amounts of hope, loyalty, fear, snark and loathing as people react to his projections of reality, his sales pitches, his outrage and outrageousness, his spiky button-pushing. Previously politicians nervously tiptoed around any hints of scandal. Trump wears a lack of shame like armour.
If there's a new low Trump can find, he will smash it. Trump's tweet attack on New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand fits the bill. A US president tweeting suggestively and insultingly about a female senator? You've read it now.
For the disapproving majority, Trump has cemented a spot smack in the centre of the Venn diagram of their brains. That part where anger, disbelief, despair, contempt and disgust collide. And that's just in reaction to his tweets.
Trump's first year as President has appeared unfocused, relentless, a treadmill of chaos. But from here on, his first term will be shaped by the upcoming elections and how people see his prospects. The President who never had a political honeymoon is in an increasingly weak position. His numbers are low, his party will struggle to pass legislation next year, representatives will fear defeat. Should the Russia probe drag into 2019, Democrats could control his fate. It's the case of the incredible shrinking hulk.
That's the Trump paradox: The shifting, weakening background position of the man who dominates everything. The little big man.
Trump has a different idea of what will count should he get to the 2020 primaries. He's counting on riding the economy to re-election. He's counting on that trumping all else.
