New Orleans' hurricane odds 30pc

ORLANDO - New Orleans, still down and out from last year's assault by Hurricane Katrina, is the United States city most likely to be struck by hurricane-force winds during the 2006 storm season, a researcher said yesterday.

The forecast gives the city a nearly 30 per cent chance of being hit by a hurricane and one-in-10 chance the storm will be Category 3 or stronger, meaning sustained winds of at least 178 km/h, said Chuck Watson of Kinetic Analysis Corp, a Savannah, Georgia, risk-assessment firm.

"Given the state of the infrastructure down there and the levees, gosh, that's just not good news. But that's what the climate signals look like," he said.

Watson worked with University of Central Florida statistics professor Mark Johnson. They base their forecast in part on the paths of storms over the past 155 years and expected climate conditions.

Wrapping up a two-day evacuation drill as the June 1 start to the hurricane season loomed, New Orleans' top emergency official said government, police and military are planning for storms with a sense of urgency, regardless of the odds.

A complete evacuation will be ordered whenever a storm of Category 3 or stronger appears to be bearing down on New Orleans, and there will be no shelters of last resort within the city.

- REUTERS