KEY POINTS:
This year an Airbus A319 airliner will begin flying as many 20 summer flights from the Tasmanian capital of Hobart to a snow-capped blue ice runway near Casey Station, a scientific station on the vast slice of Antarctica claimed by Australia.
The new ice airfield is a A$46 million ($51 million) project, joining the support ship Aurora Australis and the fisheries patrol vessel Ocean Viking in an Antarctic programme running on A$100 million a year.
But a paper by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a Government-funded defence think-tank, has warned that the nation's Antarctic effort is a relative pittance, underfunded and all but forgotten by the nation's policymakers.
And that, the paper argues, is a huge mistake as the ice continent grows in global significance through climate change and emerging pressures that could tempt major new players to ignore the treaty protecting its environment and resources.
The United States, Russia, Japan, Germany, India and the Netherlands are among the nations that do not recognise Canberra's claim to sovereignty over 42 per cent of the Antarctic, a territory as large as continental Australia minus Queensland.
Broader issues also loom. The paper says as the effects of climate change become more evident, science must continue to turn to Antarctica for possible answers: "Ice cores from Antarctica can tell us about the history of the earth's climate and, more importantly, help us predict the future with greater confidence. Sea-level rise, when it comes, will partly have its origins [there]."
The paper argues Australia must develop a new, strategic focus, devoting greater resources to the development of policy and research - including new senior diplomatic posts and the possible creation of a specialised Antarctic university - and embracing defence and intelligence communities.
Its authors are Dr Anthony Bergin, director of research programmes for the institute who has published widely on national security and oceans policy, and Dr Marcus Howard, programme leader for the policy programme of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre and an associate professor at the University of Tasmania's school of government.
They believe Canberra needs to re-think its approach to the claimed almost 6 million sq km of Antarctica given the fact its sovereignty rests with three small bases: no Australian has visited what is the nation's highest mountain - the 3492m Mt McClintock - and Chinese researchers had to install an automatic weather station for Canberra on the plateau known as Dome A because the Australian Antarctic programme was unable to.
Australian sovereignty is fragile, enshrined in the 1959 Antarctic Treaty signed by 12 nations that froze the existing claims of Canberra, New Zealand, Argentina, Chile, France, Norway and Britain, and established a successful international accord that survived even the Cold War.
As well as blocking new claims the treaty - now with 46 signatories - forbids military activities, and guarantees freedom of scientific research and insists its results be freely available.
But Bergin and Howard say that while protecting Australian sovereignty is crucial and should underpin Canberra's Antarctic efforts, the nation's claims could be challenged.
There is nothing to stop a country that is not part of the treaty from setting up a base on Australian territory, operating outside the treaty's provisions. New players could start commercial prospecting there. A treaty member could ignore the rules, or operate through a third party - already happening with illegal fishing in the Southern Ocean.
Other grim scenarios emerge. Japan could finally dump the International Whaling commission and begin full-scale commercial whaling in Australian Antarctic waters. Other illegal fishing could become uncontrollable.
Minerals and offshore hydrocarbon reserves beckon. The Madrid protocol banning mining binds only a small number of signatories, and the paper warns that as global fossil fuels shrink and polar mining technology improves, pressure for mining activities might grow, especially if large oil and gas reserves are discovered.
"It has recently been suggested that Antarctic resources could become viable once oil passes US$200 ($270) a barrel," the paper says. "If oil prices reach such levels, desperate nations might set their sights on Antarctica for continued supply."
Bergin and Howard say Australia cannot defend its territory with military force, even if it was prepared to breach the treaty. It does not have an Antarctic war-fighting capability, and Canberra has clear interests in making sure the continent remains demilitarised. Apart from anything else, it frees stretched defence budgets for operations elsewhere.
But while it is 20 years since high-level defence and foreign affairs thinking was applied to the Antarctic, their paper cautions against complacency.
"In the future there may be more strategic competition in our southern flank. Resource disputes could emerge. The US, Russia, China and India could decide to step up their activities and withdraw from the treaty. Other nations might relinquish their claim, putting more pressure on Australia's claim. The United Nations might become more directly engaged on Antarctic issues."
There are vital environmental concerns, not least the need to understand the key role the Antarctic plays in the global climate. And there are potential economic issues, ranging from toothfish and icefish to new Norwegian technology to harvest krill. And, with about 30 per cent of global freshwater reserves in its Antarctic territory, Australia could consider an iceberg harvesting industry.
Bergin and Howard say Australia needs to start acting now, beginning with a new white paper setting down a foundation for the nation's Antarctic policy over the next decade. Beyond this they urge the creation of an ambassador for Antarctica, a senior diplomat working closely with a broad range of agencies to co-ordinate and promote the use of national energies and capacities, and acting as a focus for Canberra's international efforts to protect the continent. This needs to be supported by a new office for Antarctic and Southern Ocean affairs within the Foreign Affairs Department.
The paper further suggests a fellowship programme to build international contacts and expertise and create a "cadre" of leaders and professionals to boost co-operation in Antarctica. It also suggests a feasibility study for a world Antarctic university, a graduate school designed to produce experts in key aspects of Antarctic science, environment law and policy, and to carry out a wide range of research.
"The demand for highly qualified Antarctic scientists and policy experts is likely to grow in the future as more attention turns to climate change and Antarctic ecosystems," the paper says.
It also argues for a new multi-role ship to support scientific research, search and rescue, environmental pollution control, fisheries patrols and the resupply of Antarctic bases - and to demonstrate Australia's commitment as a "serious Antarctic nation".
And while mining remains banned, Bergin and Howard say Australia should map the extent, accessibility and value of mineral resources within its territory: attitudes may change over the next 10 years. "For example, a proposal for Australian mineral exploitation in our Antarctic territory, before we are beaten to these resources by other states, has already been canvassed. We can't assume such issues will not be raised from time to time ... We need to be prepared for this."
Bergin and Howard also believe the military needs to be more involved. For example, Canberra should regard the Air Force's four new C-17 Globemaster transports as national assets and consider using one to support the Antarctic programme, as the US does out of Christchurch.
Defence, intelligence and Federal Police officials also need to be drawn into Antarctic policy and planning: "The national security community should engage Antarctic policymakers much more in terms of what may be required in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica in the future ... Protecting national sovereignty is critical to our national interests and should underpin our Antarctic efforts."
