New bid to end Israel's nuclear secrecy

VIENNA - The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, Mohamed ElBaradei, goes to Israel tomorrow to try to persuade it to open up its nuclear programme.

But yesterday, officials said Israel was not ready to scrap its atomic arsenal.

Under its policy of "strategic ambiguity", Israel neither admits nor denies having nuclear weapons.

But it is assumed to have up to 200 warheads, based on estimates of the amount of plutonium Israeli reactors have produced.

No breakthroughs are expected, but one Western diplomat close to the International Atomic Energy Agency said ElBaradei would meet senior Israeli officials, possibly including Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Agency spokesman Mark Gwozdecky said it would be partly a "routine visit", but ElBaradei intended "to promote the concept of a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East".

Israel welcomes the idea of a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction.

But it says disarmament has to wait until peace has been achieved in the region.

"We need ... to rid the Middle East of all weapons of mass destruction," ElBaradei said recently. "Israel agrees with that, but says it has to be after peace agreements.

"My proposal is maybe we need to start to have a parallel dialogue on security at the same time as we're working on the peace process."

A diplomat close to the agency went further, saying: "No Middle East peace process can work until we deal with the issue of weapons of mass destruction."

Until recently, diplomats in Vienna were saying that ElBaradei might try to persuade Israel to acknowledge it had nuclear weapons, as a first step towards disarmament. But Israeli officials and diplomats in Vienna now say this will not happen.

Asked if Israel was ready to abandon its strategic ambiguity policy, a senior Israeli official said: "Absolutely not. The policy has served the country well for decades against very hostile Middle East neighbours.

"Only when that regional situation improves can we seriously consider a change of policy."

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said a nuclear weapons-free Middle East would be possible only when the threat to Israel from Arab and Islamic countries was gone.

"Then we can put a great deal more pressure on Israel to abandon its undoubted nuclear weapons programme, which has been there ... for defensive purposes," Straw said.

Analysts said the timing of the trip was significant.

The Middle East peace process has stalled, other nations are increasingly suspicious of the atomic programme of Iran, a declared enemy of Israel, and other Middle East states have demanded that the atomic energy agency put pressure on Israel.

Analysts cited a belief in the Middle East that Israel has been given special treatment by its ally the United States.

Tehran insists its nuclear programme is peaceful but has been subjected to intense scrutiny from the atomic agency because of US-led allegations that it is secretly trying to build nuclear weapons in breach of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations.

Israel has never signed the treaty, and is the only Middle Eastern state that has not done so.

The weapons

Analysts concluded Israel had produced as many as 200 nuclear weapons on the basis of disclosures from nuclear whistleblower Mordechai Vanunu to a British newspaper in 1986 - making Israel the world's fifth biggest nuclear power.

Recent United States intelligence assessments put the arsenal at around 80 missiles.

There have been no serious security leaks since Vanunu gave information about the reactor in the desert town of Dimona.

* Delivery systems

Analysts believe Israel developed two rudimentary atomic bombs before the 1967 Middle East war.

Since then, Israel has gained long-range delivery systems such as missiles, submarines and warplanes, according to analysts citing satellite images.

Some experts believe Israel also has "tactical" nuclear arms - mine-sized bombs that could turn battles without causing widespread devastation.

* "Strategic ambiguity"

Israel maintains a policy known as "strategic ambiguity" around its non-conventional capabilities to ward off regional foes while trying to avoid an arms race.

Iraq and Libya are known to have unsuccessfully pursued nuclear weapons and Israel is believed to be the only country in the Middle East to have them.

Israel and the US accuse Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons, a charge that Tehran vehemently denies.

* Inspections

Like India and Pakistan, Israel did not sign the 1970 United Nations Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, so the International Atomic Energy Agency has no mandate to inspect its Dimona facility.

According to historians, Israel received US assurances in 1969 that it would not be pressured to sign the treaty if it refrained from conducting a nuclear test.

- REUTERS