Nation's gloom threatens Bush return

WASHINGTON - President George W. Bush has been dogged by a spate of bad news in the final days of the United States presidential campaign but it is unclear whether that will sway enough voters to affect the election outcome.

"The news has been horrible for Bush - from gas prices spiking to the flu shot shortage to the bad news from Iraq and the stock market tanking. I can't remember a worse run-up to election day for an incumbent," American University political scientist Allan Lichtman said.

Polls show the race between Bush and Democrat John Kerry remains deadlocked, though some surveys have given Kerry a slight edge in recent days.

Kerry has ripped each bad news item straight from the newspapers and pasted it into his speeches.

When it was reported that 380 tonnes of high explosives was missing from an Iraqi military installation, Kerry was telling voters about it the next day.

A report that the White House would ask Congress for US$75 billion early next year to finance the war in Iraq also immediately won inclusion in Kerry's speeches.

Earlier, the Massachusetts senator attacked Bush for failing to heed warnings about a shortage of flu vaccine, attempting to link it to his general charge of Administration incompetence.

"If you can't get flu vaccines to Americans, how are you going to protect them against bioterrorism?" Kerry said.

"If you can't get flu vaccines to Americans, what kind of health care programme are you running?"

University of Iowa political scientist Michael Lewis-Beck said the bad news could sway the remaining undecided voters and that polls have shown it already had.

"Things are so tight that any random ripple can make a difference. People are paying very close attention now and bad news travels far and fast," he said.

There are indications the mood of the US before Wednesday's election is gloomy.

US consumer confidence dropped again in October, the third straight month of declines. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index came in at 92.8, down from 96.7 in September. Traditionally, if the index falls below 100, incumbent presidents have a tough time winning re-election.

The Dow Jones stock index, meantime, is stuck below 10,000.

Polls also show that around 55 per cent of voters believe the country is seriously on the wrong track and Bush's approval ratings hover just below 50 per cent in most surveys.

However, the one constant that has kept Bush's support relatively stable has been voters' widespread perception that he is better equipped to defend the country.

"People may think the country is on the wrong track but many worry above all about the next terrorist attack and they come back to what they know," said Lynn Vavreck, a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles.

"They know what Bush did in that situation and they don't know what Kerry would do," she said.


- REUTERS