Mugabe pullout risks racial split

By HELEN TUNNAH in Nigeria

ABUJA - The Commonwealth again risks a split along racial lines after Zimbabwe greeted news of its continued suspension by saying it would quit anyway.

The decision to retain indefinitely the suspension imposed last year followed acrimonious debate among leaders - with a clear division between southern African countries and the vocal "white" states led by Great Britain, Australia and NewZealand.

A statement attributed to President Robert Mugabe that Zimbabwe was to leave the Commonwealth with immediate effect sparked fears that some of his close allies might feel pressured to follow. However, nations have quit the Commonwealth before, and been welcomed back after regime or constitutional changes without the organisation breaking up.

South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki led support for Mr Mugabe at the four-day Commonwealth leaders' meeting in Nigeria, remaining loyal despite mounting evidence of human rights abuses such as torture and political killings.

South Africa was the only country which declared last year's Zimbabwean presidential elections fair. Other monitors said they were rigged and marred by violence, prompting the suspension.

The Nigeria summit has put in place the means by which Zimbabwe could return to the fold, and it appeared to be "buying time".

Mr Mugabe is 79, there have been reports of ill-health, and from Harare there is increasing talk of his own ruling Zanu-PF party actively seeking his successor.

Prime Minister Helen Clark had earlier said that even a change of leader in Zimbabwe might be enough to prompt fresh discussions about getting the Commonwealth suspension lifted.

Leaders had spent three days debating Zimbabwe's regime, after the issue completely overwhelmed the summit in the Nigerian capital, Abuja.

Mr Mugabe's defiant declaration was expected to cast a shadow over last night's final session.

A hard-fought deal to monitor Zimbabwe's progress towards democracy was eventually agreed to yesterday, but doubts emerged about its strength when African nations began saying Zimbabwe might be back in the fold within "months", a timeframe others including Australia took issue with.

Helen Clark said the decision by the Commonwealth to keep Zimbabwe suspended meant the organisation retained its credibility.

"I am satisfied with the outcome."

Britain, New Zealand and Australia argued hard for the suspension, but southern African states united behind Mr Mugabe.

Their brinkmanship took a special two-day leaders' retreat into overtime, and forced Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair to several times delay leaving Nigeria to try to ensure the suspension was not lifted.

South Africa is on a committee of six nations which was to oversee Zimbabwe's return to the Commonwealth, under the guidance of Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo, who said last night that he intended travelling to Zimbabwe soon to speak with Mr Mugabe and opposition political groups.

Mr Mbeki and Mr Mugabe have strong ties through the black independence movements of South Africa and Zimbabwe, and have both argued that Commonwealth interference breaches a country's sovereignty.

However both minority white rule in Zimbabwe and the apartheid regime of South Africa were ended in part because of Commonwealth pressure.

"It does seem a bit ironic that this position has been taken by those who have benefited from Commonwealth action in the past. But life is full of rich ironies," Helen Clark said.

"It seems they see Mr Mugabe as an old freedom fighter who should be stood by.

"What we see is a Government which has performed the most appalling human rights violations against its people and has undermined the rule of law."

In their statement on Zimbabwe, Commonwealth leaders expressed:

* Their earnest desire for an early return to the Commonwealth.

* Determination to promote talks between political groups in Zimbabwe.

* Deep concern for the people of Zimbabwe.

* A desire that all countries adhere to principles of democracy and good governance.